The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine

Since 2014, the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones. This study shows that scaling up ef...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:	GROWTH DRIVERS CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES DESTRUCTION DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT DISORGANIZATION LABOR MARKET ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES POLICY EFFECTIVENESS RECOVERY FINANCE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INTERNAL MIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/456551624599304372/The-Economics-of-Winning-Hearts-and-Minds-Programming-Recovery-in-Eastern-Ukraine http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35908

id	okr-10986-35908
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-359082021-07-15T05:10:40Z The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine World Bank GROWTH DRIVERS CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES DESTRUCTION DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT DISORGANIZATION LABOR MARKET ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES POLICY EFFECTIVENESS RECOVERY FINANCE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INTERNAL MIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Since 2014, the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones. This study shows that scaling up efforts in the government-controlled areas (GCAs) of Donbas is desirable despite the subdued productivity in the region. This study recommends a decision tree approach to programming recovery in Donbas. Given the looming uncertainties and scenario-sensitivity of optimal policies, the recovery strategy should distinguish contingent policies from no-regret policies. Contingent policies change between the status quo and the reintegration scenarios, and they include interventions to mitigate conflict-related risks, risk-related transfers to address skill-shortages in GCAs, and investments for a contingent infrastructure strategy. By comparison, no-regret policies are desirable regardless of the conflict dynamics. They include the reforms to eliminate regulatory burdens and corruption; policies to open up the housing market; investments to modernize education for jobs and target low-hanging fruits in infrastructure; and efforts to produce better data to address knowledge gaps. 2021-07-14T19:22:55Z 2021-07-14T19:22:55Z 2021-06-25 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/456551624599304372/The-Economics-of-Winning-Hearts-and-Minds-Programming-Recovery-in-Eastern-Ukraine http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35908 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study Europe and Central Asia Ukraine
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	GROWTH DRIVERS CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES DESTRUCTION DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT DISORGANIZATION LABOR MARKET ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES POLICY EFFECTIVENESS RECOVERY FINANCE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INTERNAL MIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
spellingShingle	GROWTH DRIVERS CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES DESTRUCTION DISPLACEMENT FORCED DISPLACEMENT DISORGANIZATION LABOR MARKET ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES POLICY EFFECTIVENESS RECOVERY FINANCE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INTERNAL MIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS World Bank The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Ukraine
description	Since 2014, the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones. This study shows that scaling up efforts in the government-controlled areas (GCAs) of Donbas is desirable despite the subdued productivity in the region. This study recommends a decision tree approach to programming recovery in Donbas. Given the looming uncertainties and scenario-sensitivity of optimal policies, the recovery strategy should distinguish contingent policies from no-regret policies. Contingent policies change between the status quo and the reintegration scenarios, and they include interventions to mitigate conflict-related risks, risk-related transfers to address skill-shortages in GCAs, and investments for a contingent infrastructure strategy. By comparison, no-regret policies are desirable regardless of the conflict dynamics. They include the reforms to eliminate regulatory burdens and corruption; policies to open up the housing market; investments to modernize education for jobs and target low-hanging fruits in infrastructure; and efforts to produce better data to address knowledge gaps.
format	Report
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
title_short	The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
title_full	The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
title_fullStr	The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
title_full_unstemmed	The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
title_sort	economics of winning hearts and minds : programming recovery in eastern ukraine
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2021
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/456551624599304372/The-Economics-of-Winning-Hearts-and-Minds-Programming-Recovery-in-Eastern-Ukraine http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35908
_version_	1764483959495852032

The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine

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