The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-rec...

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Main Authors: Ma, Lin, Shapira, Gil, de Walque, Damien, Do, Quy-Toan, Friedman, Jed, Levchenko, Andrei A.
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:
CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC RESPONSE
LOCKDOWN
CHILD MORTALITY
SIR-MACRO
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
PANDEMIC IMPACT
BUSINESS CYCLE
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35638
id okr-10986-35638
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-356382021-11-30T05:10:35Z The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Ma, Lin Shapira, Gil de Walque, Damien Do, Quy-Toan Friedman, Jed Levchenko, Andrei A. CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC RESPONSE LOCKDOWN CHILD MORTALITY SIR-MACRO ECONOMIC DOWNTURN PANDEMIC IMPACT BUSINESS CYCLE In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns can actually produce net increases in mortality. In contrast, the optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produces a net mortality increase. 2021-06-02T13:16:06Z 2021-06-02T13:16:06Z 2021-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35638 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9677 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC RESPONSE
LOCKDOWN
CHILD MORTALITY
SIR-MACRO
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
PANDEMIC IMPACT
BUSINESS CYCLE
spellingShingle CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
PANDEMIC RESPONSE
LOCKDOWN
CHILD MORTALITY
SIR-MACRO
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
PANDEMIC IMPACT
BUSINESS CYCLE
Ma, Lin
Shapira, Gil
de Walque, Damien
Do, Quy-Toan
Friedman, Jed
Levchenko, Andrei A.
The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9677
description In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns can actually produce net increases in mortality. In contrast, the optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produces a net mortality increase.
format Working Paper
author Ma, Lin
Shapira, Gil
de Walque, Damien
Do, Quy-Toan
Friedman, Jed
Levchenko, Andrei A.
author_facet Ma, Lin
Shapira, Gil
de Walque, Damien
Do, Quy-Toan
Friedman, Jed
Levchenko, Andrei A.
author_sort Ma, Lin
title The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
title_short The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
title_full The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
title_fullStr The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
title_full_unstemmed The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
title_sort intergenerational mortality tradeoff of covid-19 lockdown policies
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2021
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35638
_version_ 1764483472053764096

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