How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022

How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022

How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Agarwal, Ruchir, Reed, Tristan
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:
CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
COVID-19 VACCINATION
SUPPLY CHAIN
VACCINE SUPPLY
VACCINE PROCUREMENT
VACCINE FINANCE
PANDEMIC
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454
id okr-10986-35454
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-354542022-09-20T00:08:43Z How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022 Agarwal, Ruchir Reed, Tristan CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 COVID-19 VACCINATION SUPPLY CHAIN VACCINE SUPPLY VACCINE PROCUREMENT VACCINE FINANCE PANDEMIC How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this target appears feasible given stated production capacity of vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be sufficient to close this gap. There are additional challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd immunity---including supply chain issues, trade restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year. 2021-04-19T20:58:13Z 2021-04-19T20:58:13Z 2021-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9632 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
COVID-19 VACCINATION
SUPPLY CHAIN
VACCINE SUPPLY
VACCINE PROCUREMENT
VACCINE FINANCE
PANDEMIC
spellingShingle CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
COVID-19 VACCINATION
SUPPLY CHAIN
VACCINE SUPPLY
VACCINE PROCUREMENT
VACCINE FINANCE
PANDEMIC
Agarwal, Ruchir
Reed, Tristan
How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9632
description How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this target appears feasible given stated production capacity of vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be sufficient to close this gap. There are additional challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd immunity---including supply chain issues, trade restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year.
format Working Paper
author Agarwal, Ruchir
Reed, Tristan
author_facet Agarwal, Ruchir
Reed, Tristan
author_sort Agarwal, Ruchir
title How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
title_short How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
title_full How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
title_fullStr How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
title_full_unstemmed How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
title_sort how to end the covid-19 pandemic by march 2022
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2021
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454
_version_ 1764483067100004352

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