The “Resource Curse” in MENA? Political Transitions, Resource Wealth, Economic Shocks, and Conflict Risk

The recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa region have exposed growing concerns about conflict risk, political stability, and reform prospects across its societies. Given the prevalence of oil and gas resource endowments in...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Ross, Michael, Kaiser, Kai, Mazaheri, Nimah
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES ADVERSE IMPACTS ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS AUDITS BALANCE SHEET BANK ACCOUNTS BATTLE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKING BENEFIT STREAMS BOUNDARIES CAPITAL FORMATION CIVIL SOCIETY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CLASS CONFLICT COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES CONFLICT CONFLICTS COUNTERPARTS CRISES CRISIS MANAGEMENT DEATHS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC ACCOUNTABILITY DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENTS DEPENDENCE DEPOSITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT AGENCY DEVELOPMENT PATHS DEVELOPMENT POLICIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DRIVERS ECONOMIC CRISES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DYNAMISM ECONOMIC FACTORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ELECTIONS ELECTRONIC TRANSFER ELECTRONIC TRANSFERS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ENTRY POINTS EXPLOITATION EXPORTS FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FERTILITY RATES FIGHTING FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FIXED CAPITAL FORECASTS FOREIGN POLICY GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMY GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HUMAN RIGHTS IMF INCOME LEVELS INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR ORGANIZATION LIVING STANDARDS LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MIGRANT LABOR MILITARY INTERVENTIONS NATIONAL INCOME NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OBSERVERS OIL OIL PRICES OUTPUT PARTICULAR COUNTRY PEACE PEACE RESEARCH PENSIONS PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION POLITICAL ECONOMIES POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS POLITICAL PARTICIPATION POLITICAL REGIME POLITICAL REGIMES POLITICAL SCIENTISTS POLITICAL SETTLEMENT POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL TRANSITIONS POLITICAL UPHEAVALS POPULATION GROWTH PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PRODUCERS PROPERTY RIGHTS PROVEN RESERVES PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC POLICIES PUBLIC POLICY REBEL REBELS RECONSTRUCTION REGIME CHANGE REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS REMOTE LOCATIONS RENEWABLE RESOURCES RENTS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT REVOLUTION REVOLUTIONS RISK PREMIUM SANCTIONS SAVINGS SECURITY CONCERNS SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNK COSTS SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TAX TAX REFORM TAXATION TRANSPARENCY UNEMPLOYMENT VICTIMS VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH WORLD DEVELOPMENT WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110823114742 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3538

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Summary:	The recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa region have exposed growing concerns about conflict risk, political stability, and reform prospects across its societies. Given the prevalence of oil and gas resource endowments in the region, which a voluminous literature suggests can be associated with adverse development consequences, this paper examines the interplay between their associated rents and political economy trajectories. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, to examine the quantitative evidence of violent conflict in the region since 1960; second, to provide a nuanced review of the regional case study literature on the relationship between resource endowments, political stability, and conflict risk; and third, to assess how prospective political transitions have implications for the World Bank Group's work in the region on public sector management and private sector development. The authors find that resources and regimes have intersected to provide stability and limited violent conflict in the region, but that these development patterns have yielded a set of policy choices and development patterns that are proving increasingly brittle and unsustainable. A major institutional challenge for reforms will be to consolidate a requisite degree of inter-temporal credibility and stability in these regimes, while expanding inclusiveness in state-society relations.

The “Resource Curse” in MENA? Political Transitions, Resource Wealth, Economic Shocks, and Conflict Risk

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