Do Coronavirus Containment Measures Work? Worldwide Evidence
Using a daily data base covering 158 countries during January to August 2020, this paper assesses the effectiveness of coronavirus containment measures in reducing contagion and death rates. To estimate the effectiveness of different containment me...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262351607455364773/Do-Coronavirus-Containment-Measures-Work-Worldwide-Evidence http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34912 |
| Summary: | Using a daily data base covering 158
countries during January to August 2020, this paper assesses
the effectiveness of coronavirus containment measures in
reducing contagion and death rates. To estimate the
effectiveness of different containment measures, the paper
uses a methodological approach that takes into consideration
the persistence in the dynamics between coronavirus
containment measures and contagion/death rates, countries’
idiosyncratic characteristics, and the endogeneity of the
containment measures. To obtain efficient estimates of the
effect of coronavirus containment measures on contagion and
death rates, a dynamic panel-data technique is used,
complemented by efficient instruments for the decision of
adopting coronavirus containment measures. The results show
that countries with better health systems, higher
temperatures, and more democratic regimes tended to delay
the adoption of coronavirus containment measures. The
results also detect demonstration effects as the early
adoption of coronavirus containment measures in Western
Europe led other countries to accelerate their adoption.
Using predictions from the estimated model, it is possible
to benchmark the timing of adoption of coronavirus
containment measures and assess whether their adoption was
timely or not and if they were lifted prematurely or not.
The findings of this exercise show that countries with
timely adopted coronavirus containment measures restricted
activities, meanwhile they lagged in the adoption of
measures restricting individual liberties. The evidence
indicates that most countries resisted the urge to lift
restrictions in advance, once they have been in place: over
60 percent of the countries have reacted as predicted by our
econometric models, maintaining coronavirus containment
measures in place until contagion rates receded.
Nevertheless, around one-quarter of the countries lifted
their restrictions one month or more ahead of what the
worldwide evidence would have suggested, in particular by
removing lockdowns and re-opening workplaces. Finally, the
results show that coronavirus containment measures have been
effective in reducing contagion and death rates, but there
are differences in the effectiveness among them, and
restrictions on activities have been more effective than
restrictions on personal liberties. |
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