Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity

This paper estimates the impact of a differential relaxation of COVID-19 containment policies on aggregate economic activity in India. Following a uniform national lockdown, the Government of India classified all districts into three zones with var...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Beyer, Robert C.M., Jain, Tarun, Sinha, Sonalika
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/604661606761245743/Lights-Out-COVID-19-Containment-Policies-and-Economic-Activity
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34840
id okr-10986-34840
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-348402022-09-20T00:10:27Z Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity Beyer, Robert C.M. Jain, Tarun Sinha, Sonalika CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 DISEASE CONTAINMENT LOCKDOWN NIGHTTIME LIGHT INTENSITY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RE-OPENING POLICY RELAXATION This paper estimates the impact of a differential relaxation of COVID-19 containment policies on aggregate economic activity in India. Following a uniform national lockdown, the Government of India classified all districts into three zones with varying containment measures in May 2020. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the paper estimates the impact of these restrictions on nighttime light intensity, a standard high-frequency proxy for economic activity. To conduct this analysis, pandemic-era, district-level data from a range of novel sources are combined -- monthly nighttime lights from global satellites; Facebook’s mobility data from individual smartphone locations; and high-frequency, household-level survey data on income and consumption, supplemented with data from the Indian Census and the Reserve Bank of India. The analysis finds that nighttime light intensity in May was 12.4 percent lower for districts with the most severe restrictions and 1.7 percent lower for districts with intermediate restrictions, compared with districts with the least restrictions. The differences were largest in May, when the different policies were in place, and slowly tapered in June and July. Restricted mobility and lower household income are plausible channels for these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density of older residents, as well as more services employment and bank credit. 2020-11-30T22:23:24Z 2020-11-30T22:23:24Z 2020-11 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/604661606761245743/Lights-Out-COVID-19-Containment-Policies-and-Economic-Activity http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34840 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9485 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper South Asia India
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
DISEASE CONTAINMENT
LOCKDOWN
NIGHTTIME LIGHT INTENSITY
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
RE-OPENING
POLICY RELAXATION
spellingShingle CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19
DISEASE CONTAINMENT
LOCKDOWN
NIGHTTIME LIGHT INTENSITY
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
RE-OPENING
POLICY RELAXATION
Beyer, Robert C.M.
Jain, Tarun
Sinha, Sonalika
Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
geographic_facet South Asia
India
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9485
description This paper estimates the impact of a differential relaxation of COVID-19 containment policies on aggregate economic activity in India. Following a uniform national lockdown, the Government of India classified all districts into three zones with varying containment measures in May 2020. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the paper estimates the impact of these restrictions on nighttime light intensity, a standard high-frequency proxy for economic activity. To conduct this analysis, pandemic-era, district-level data from a range of novel sources are combined -- monthly nighttime lights from global satellites; Facebook’s mobility data from individual smartphone locations; and high-frequency, household-level survey data on income and consumption, supplemented with data from the Indian Census and the Reserve Bank of India. The analysis finds that nighttime light intensity in May was 12.4 percent lower for districts with the most severe restrictions and 1.7 percent lower for districts with intermediate restrictions, compared with districts with the least restrictions. The differences were largest in May, when the different policies were in place, and slowly tapered in June and July. Restricted mobility and lower household income are plausible channels for these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density of older residents, as well as more services employment and bank credit.
format Working Paper
author Beyer, Robert C.M.
Jain, Tarun
Sinha, Sonalika
author_facet Beyer, Robert C.M.
Jain, Tarun
Sinha, Sonalika
author_sort Beyer, Robert C.M.
title Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
title_short Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
title_full Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
title_fullStr Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
title_full_unstemmed Lights Out? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic Activity
title_sort lights out? covid-19 containment policies and economic activity
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2020
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/604661606761245743/Lights-Out-COVID-19-Containment-Policies-and-Economic-Activity
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34840
_version_ 1764481766531268608