From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries

Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determine...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Lin, Justin Yifu
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
GDP
TAX
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110622143522
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3466
id okr-10986-3466
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic ADVANCED COUNTRIES
ADVANCED COUNTRY
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AGRICULTURE
ANNUAL GROWTH
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
BANKRUPTCY
BILATERAL TRADE
BUSINESS CLIMATE
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL INTENSITY
CAPITAL RATIO
CLOSED ECONOMY
COLONIALISM
COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXPORTS
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
COMPETITIVE MARKET
COMPETITIVE MARKETS
COMPETITIVENESS
CONSUMER GOODS
CREATION OF JOBS
CREDIT RATIONING
CURRENCY
CURRENCY APPRECIATION
DATA AVAILABILITY
DATA SETS
DEBT
DEBT CRISIS
DEMOCRACY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES
DIVERSIFICATION
DIVIDENDS
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
ECONOMIC COMPETITION
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC HISTORY
ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION
ECONOMIC LITERATURE
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC POWERS
ECONOMIC PROGRESS
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
ECONOMIC REFORMS
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC TAKEOFF
ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMICS RESEARCH
ECONOMIES OF SCALE
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EMERGING ECONOMY
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
EMPIRICAL STUDIES
EMPIRICAL WORK
EXCHANGE RATES
EXPORT MARKETS
EXPORT SECTORS
EXPORTS
EXTERNALITIES
EXTERNALITY
EXTREME POVERTY
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FOOD PRICES
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FOREIGN FIRMS
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GLOBAL EXPORTS
GLOBAL MARKET
GLOBALIZATION
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HUMAN CAPITAL
INCOME
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME GROUP
INCOME GROUPS
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME LEVELS
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES
INDUSTRIAL POLICY
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
INDUSTRIALIZATION
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
INTANGIBLE
INTEREST RATES
INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION
LABOR FORCE
LABOR MARKETS
LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENT
LEGAL FRAMEWORK
LIVING STANDARDS
LONG-TERM GROWTH
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRY
LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
MARKET FAILURE
MARKET FAILURES
MARKET PARTICIPANTS
MARKET SHARES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY
MOBILE PHONES
MONOPOLY
MULTIPLIER EFFECTS
NATIONAL ECONOMIES
NATIONAL INCOME
NATURAL DISASTERS
NATURAL RESOURCE
NATURAL RESOURCES
OPEN ECONOMY
PER CAPITA INCOME
PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS
PER CAPITA INCOMES
POLICY ANALYSIS
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY RESEARCH
POOR COUNTRIES
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
POWER PARITY
PRIMARY PRODUCTS
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH
PRIVATIZATION
PRODUCT MARKETS
PRODUCTION COSTS
PRODUCTION STRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVITY
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTECTIONISM
PURCHASING POWER
RAPID GROWTH
RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION
REAL GDP
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
RELATIVE PRICES
RENT SEEKING
RICH COUNTRIES
RURAL AREAS
SECTORAL COMPOSITION
SMALL COUNTRIES
SMALL ECONOMIES
STANDARD DEVIATION
STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
SURPLUS LABOR
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
TAX
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
THIRD WORLD
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TOTAL OUTPUT
TRANSACTION COSTS
TRANSPARENCY
TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNSKILLED LABOR
URBAN AREAS
URBANIZATION
VALUE ADDED
VOLATILITY
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WEALTH
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
WORLD ECONOMIES
WORLD ECONOMY
WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT
WORLD MARKETS
spellingShingle ADVANCED COUNTRIES
ADVANCED COUNTRY
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AGRICULTURE
ANNUAL GROWTH
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
BANKRUPTCY
BILATERAL TRADE
BUSINESS CLIMATE
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
CAPITAL INTENSITY
CAPITAL RATIO
CLOSED ECONOMY
COLONIALISM
COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXPORTS
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
COMPETITIVE MARKET
COMPETITIVE MARKETS
COMPETITIVENESS
CONSUMER GOODS
CREATION OF JOBS
CREDIT RATIONING
CURRENCY
CURRENCY APPRECIATION
DATA AVAILABILITY
DATA SETS
DEBT
DEBT CRISIS
DEMOCRACY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES
DIVERSIFICATION
DIVIDENDS
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
ECONOMIC COMPETITION
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC HISTORY
ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION
ECONOMIC LITERATURE
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC POWERS
ECONOMIC PROGRESS
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
ECONOMIC REFORMS
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC TAKEOFF
ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMICS RESEARCH
ECONOMIES OF SCALE
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EMERGING ECONOMY
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
EMPIRICAL STUDIES
EMPIRICAL WORK
EXCHANGE RATES
EXPORT MARKETS
EXPORT SECTORS
EXPORTS
EXTERNALITIES
EXTERNALITY
EXTREME POVERTY
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FOOD PRICES
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
FOREIGN FIRMS
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GLOBAL EXPORTS
GLOBAL MARKET
GLOBALIZATION
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HUMAN CAPITAL
INCOME
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME GROUP
INCOME GROUPS
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME LEVELS
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES
INDUSTRIAL POLICY
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
INDUSTRIALIZATION
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
INTANGIBLE
INTEREST RATES
INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION
LABOR FORCE
LABOR MARKETS
LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENT
LEGAL FRAMEWORK
LIVING STANDARDS
LONG-TERM GROWTH
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRY
LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
MARKET FAILURE
MARKET FAILURES
MARKET PARTICIPANTS
MARKET SHARES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY
MOBILE PHONES
MONOPOLY
MULTIPLIER EFFECTS
NATIONAL ECONOMIES
NATIONAL INCOME
NATURAL DISASTERS
NATURAL RESOURCE
NATURAL RESOURCES
OPEN ECONOMY
PER CAPITA INCOME
PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS
PER CAPITA INCOMES
POLICY ANALYSIS
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY RESEARCH
POOR COUNTRIES
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
POWER PARITY
PRIMARY PRODUCTS
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH
PRIVATIZATION
PRODUCT MARKETS
PRODUCTION COSTS
PRODUCTION STRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVITY
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTECTIONISM
PURCHASING POWER
RAPID GROWTH
RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION
REAL GDP
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
RELATIVE PRICES
RENT SEEKING
RICH COUNTRIES
RURAL AREAS
SECTORAL COMPOSITION
SMALL COUNTRIES
SMALL ECONOMIES
STANDARD DEVIATION
STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
SURPLUS LABOR
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
TAX
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
THIRD WORLD
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TOTAL OUTPUT
TRANSACTION COSTS
TRANSPARENCY
TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNSKILLED LABOR
URBAN AREAS
URBANIZATION
VALUE ADDED
VOLATILITY
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WEALTH
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
WORLD ECONOMIES
WORLD ECONOMY
WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT
WORLD MARKETS
Lin, Justin Yifu
From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
geographic_facet The World Region
The World Region
relation Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5702
description Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Lin, Justin Yifu
author_facet Lin, Justin Yifu
author_sort Lin, Justin Yifu
title From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
title_short From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
title_full From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
title_fullStr From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
title_full_unstemmed From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
title_sort from flying geese to leading dragons : new opportunities and strategies for structural transformation in developing countries
publishDate 2012
url http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110622143522
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3466
_version_ 1764387045956911104
spelling okr-10986-34662021-04-23T14:02:10Z From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries Lin, Justin Yifu ADVANCED COUNTRIES ADVANCED COUNTRY ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE BANKRUPTCY BILATERAL TRADE BUSINESS CLIMATE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL INTENSITY CAPITAL RATIO CLOSED ECONOMY COLONIALISM COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES COMPETITIVE MARKET COMPETITIVE MARKETS COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER GOODS CREATION OF JOBS CREDIT RATIONING CURRENCY CURRENCY APPRECIATION DATA AVAILABILITY DATA SETS DEBT DEBT CRISIS DEMOCRACY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES DIVERSIFICATION DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC ECONOMY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC COMPETITION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POWERS ECONOMIC PROGRESS ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC REFORMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC TAKEOFF ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS RESEARCH ECONOMIES OF SCALE EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES EMPIRICAL STUDIES EMPIRICAL WORK EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SECTORS EXPORTS EXTERNALITIES EXTERNALITY EXTREME POVERTY FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL SYSTEM FOOD PRICES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN FIRMS FOREIGN INVESTMENT GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL EXPORTS GLOBAL MARKET GLOBALIZATION GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INDUSTRIAL POLICY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR INDUSTRIALIZATION INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INTANGIBLE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKETS LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENT LEGAL FRAMEWORK LIVING STANDARDS LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES MARKET FAILURE MARKET FAILURES MARKET PARTICIPANTS MARKET SHARES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY MOBILE PHONES MONOPOLY MULTIPLIER EFFECTS NATIONAL ECONOMIES NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ECONOMY PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POOR COUNTRIES POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PRIVATIZATION PRODUCT MARKETS PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTIONISM PURCHASING POWER RAPID GROWTH RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION REAL GDP RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RENT SEEKING RICH COUNTRIES RURAL AREAS SECTORAL COMPOSITION SMALL COUNTRIES SMALL ECONOMIES STANDARD DEVIATION STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES STRUCTURAL CHANGE SURPLUS LABOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS THIRD WORLD TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL OUTPUT TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSPARENCY TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT UNSKILLED LABOR URBAN AREAS URBANIZATION VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY WAGE RATES WAGES WEALTH WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMIES WORLD ECONOMY WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT WORLD MARKETS Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity. 2012-03-19T18:02:58Z 2012-03-19T18:02:58Z 2011-06-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110622143522 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3466 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5702 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region