Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq

Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide. Amid a multitude of crises—including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and re...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Book
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2020
Subjects:	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES FRAGILITY DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GROWTH
Online Access:	https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/573051601533287890/breaking-out-of-fragility-a-country-economic-memorandum-for-diversification-and-growth-in-iraq http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34416

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recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-344162021-04-23T14:02:00Z Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq World Bank CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES FRAGILITY DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GROWTH Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide. Amid a multitude of crises—including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent instability and protests—coupled with poor economic policies, a lack of reforms, and an inability to tackle corruption, Iraq is having its worst annual economic growth performance in 2020 since the fall of the Saddam regime. But with every crisis comes an opportunity to reform. Iraq can embark on a long but much-needed path toward structural transformation, one that could leave its economy less dependent on oil and more driven by private sector activity. Such a path can no longer be avoided, as has been illustrated by the widespread protests since October 2019. This report highlights what Iraq can do to sustain future growth; it also shows why Iraq has not yet managed to achieve high levels of diversified growth alongside peace, stability, and a better standard of living for its people. Iraq’s high levels of fragility and conflict--reinforced by high oil dependency--hinder the country’s prospects for economic reform and growth. Despite Iraq’s existing sociopolitical and economic environment, three encouraging messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in Iraq. Iraq’s per capita GDP was about one-fifth lower in 2018 than it would have been if not for the conflict beginning in 2014. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, Iraq has latent export potential for a variety of goods that, if tapped, could diversify the country’s economy, raise living standards, and boost economic resilience. Third, Iraqi agriculture could be revived to serve as a pillar of a more diversified and private sector–led economy. 2020-09-02T18:34:45Z 2020-09-02T18:34:45Z 2020-09-30 Book https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/573051601533287890/breaking-out-of-fragility-a-country-economic-memorandum-for-diversification-and-growth-in-iraq 978-1-4648-1637-6 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34416 International Development in Focus; CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Publication Middle East and North Africa Iraq
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
topic	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES FRAGILITY DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GROWTH
spellingShingle	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES FRAGILITY DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GROWTH World Bank Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Iraq
relation	International Development in Focus;
description	Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide. Amid a multitude of crises—including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent instability and protests—coupled with poor economic policies, a lack of reforms, and an inability to tackle corruption, Iraq is having its worst annual economic growth performance in 2020 since the fall of the Saddam regime. But with every crisis comes an opportunity to reform. Iraq can embark on a long but much-needed path toward structural transformation, one that could leave its economy less dependent on oil and more driven by private sector activity. Such a path can no longer be avoided, as has been illustrated by the widespread protests since October 2019. This report highlights what Iraq can do to sustain future growth; it also shows why Iraq has not yet managed to achieve high levels of diversified growth alongside peace, stability, and a better standard of living for its people. Iraq’s high levels of fragility and conflict--reinforced by high oil dependency--hinder the country’s prospects for economic reform and growth. Despite Iraq’s existing sociopolitical and economic environment, three encouraging messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in Iraq. Iraq’s per capita GDP was about one-fifth lower in 2018 than it would have been if not for the conflict beginning in 2014. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, Iraq has latent export potential for a variety of goods that, if tapped, could diversify the country’s economy, raise living standards, and boost economic resilience. Third, Iraqi agriculture could be revived to serve as a pillar of a more diversified and private sector–led economy.
format	Book
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
title_short	Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
title_full	Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
title_fullStr	Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
title_full_unstemmed	Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
title_sort	breaking out of fragility : a country economic memorandum for diversification and growth in iraq
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2020
url	https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/573051601533287890/breaking-out-of-fragility-a-country-economic-memorandum-for-diversification-and-growth-in-iraq http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34416
_version_	1764480852054507520

Breaking Out of Fragility : A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq

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