South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study
Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34119 |
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okr-10986-341192021-06-14T09:57:15Z South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study World Bank BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRADE LOGISTICS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. 2020-07-15T20:50:42Z 2020-07-15T20:50:42Z 2020-06 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34119 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Other Infrastructure Study Europe and Central Asia China Tajikistan |
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Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRADE LOGISTICS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE |
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BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRADE LOGISTICS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE World Bank South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia China Tajikistan |
| description |
Tajikistan is the poorest country in the
region despite strong growth for nearly two decades;
sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher
growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita
income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its
population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth
of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in
consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly
by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and
cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports
remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of
that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy
2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note
attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI
on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented
globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport
connections and greater economic integration of
participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in
Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT
infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of
the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik
shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic
impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI
and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the
country and at how complementary polices can enhance the
positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the
fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI
transport projects in the coming years without undermining
medium-term debt sustainability. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| title_short |
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| title_full |
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| title_fullStr |
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| title_full_unstemmed |
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study |
| title_sort |
south caucasus and central asia - the belt and road initiative : tajikistan country case study |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34119 |
| _version_ |
1764480193632665600 |