South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Tajikistan Country Case Study
Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34119 |
| Summary: | Tajikistan is the poorest country in the
region despite strong growth for nearly two decades;
sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher
growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita
income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its
population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth
of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in
consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly
by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and
cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports
remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of
that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy
2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note
attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI
on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented
globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport
connections and greater economic integration of
participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in
Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT
infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of
the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik
shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic
impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI
and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the
country and at how complementary polices can enhance the
positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the
fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI
transport projects in the coming years without undermining
medium-term debt sustainability. |
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