Winners and Losers from COVID-19 : Global Evidence from Google Search
As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc across the world, researchers are attempting to quantify the economic fallout from the pandemic as it continues to unfold. Estimating the economic impacts of a prevailing pandemic is fraught with uncertainties a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/821821591104924698/Winners-and-Losers-from-COVID-19-Global-Evidence-from-Google-Search http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33852 |
| Summary: | As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc
across the world, researchers are attempting to quantify the
economic fallout from the pandemic as it continues to
unfold. Estimating the economic impacts of a prevailing
pandemic is fraught with uncertainties about the
epidemiology of the disease and the breadth of disruption of
economic activities. This paper employs historical and near
real-time Google search data to estimate the immediate
impacts of COVID-19 on demand for selected services across
182 countries. The analysis exploits the temporal and
spatial variations in the spread of the virus and finds that
demand for services that require face-to-face interaction,
such as hotels, restaurants and retail trade, has
substantially contracted. In contrast, demand for services
that can be performed remotely or provide solutions to the
challenges of reduced personal interactions, such as
information and communications technology (ICT), and
deliveries, has increased significantly. In a span of three
months, the pandemic has resulted in a 63 percent reduction
in demand for hotels, while increasing demand for ICT by a
comparable rate. The impacts appear to be driven by supply
contractions, due to social distancing and lockdown
measures, and demand shocks as consumers shelter in place,
with the latter dominating for most services. The magnitude
of the changes in demand varies considerably with government
responses to the pandemic. |
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