COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics?
COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the ex...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559181590712052524/COVID-19-Mortality-in-Rich-and-Poor-Countries-A-Tale-of-Two-Pandemics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33844 |
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okr-10986-338442022-09-20T00:10:34Z COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? Schellekens, Philip Sourrouille, Diego CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 MORTALITY CAUSE OF DEATH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEAS HEART DISEASE CASE FATALITY RATE RISK OF DEATH HEALTH PANDEMIC DEMOGRAPHICS COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85 percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates the impression that the world is subjected to two different pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three (from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific factors will influence these results but are unlikely to overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining ‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age distributions of the world. 2020-06-04T13:48:14Z 2020-06-04T13:48:14Z 2020-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559181590712052524/COVID-19-Mortality-in-Rich-and-Poor-Countries-A-Tale-of-Two-Pandemics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33844 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9260 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 MORTALITY CAUSE OF DEATH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEAS HEART DISEASE CASE FATALITY RATE RISK OF DEATH HEALTH PANDEMIC DEMOGRAPHICS |
| spellingShingle |
CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 MORTALITY CAUSE OF DEATH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEAS HEART DISEASE CASE FATALITY RATE RISK OF DEATH HEALTH PANDEMIC DEMOGRAPHICS Schellekens, Philip Sourrouille, Diego COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9260 |
| description |
COVID-19 can be described as a
heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in
society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in
the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are
not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the
virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in
high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85
percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the
pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates
the impression that the world is subjected to two different
pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the
observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses
severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that
the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent
with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for
infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country
share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three
(from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific
factors will influence these results but are unlikely to
overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining
‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that
the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age
distributions of the world. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Schellekens, Philip Sourrouille, Diego |
| author_facet |
Schellekens, Philip Sourrouille, Diego |
| author_sort |
Schellekens, Philip |
| title |
COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| title_short |
COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| title_full |
COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| title_fullStr |
COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics? |
| title_sort |
covid-19 mortality in rich and poor countries : a tale of two pandemics? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559181590712052524/COVID-19-Mortality-in-Rich-and-Poor-Countries-A-Tale-of-Two-Pandemics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33844 |
| _version_ |
1764479640980684800 |