COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics?
COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the ex...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559181590712052524/COVID-19-Mortality-in-Rich-and-Poor-Countries-A-Tale-of-Two-Pandemics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33844 |
| Summary: | COVID-19 can be described as a
heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in
society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in
the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are
not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the
virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in
high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85
percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the
pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates
the impression that the world is subjected to two different
pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the
observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses
severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that
the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent
with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for
infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country
share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three
(from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific
factors will influence these results but are unlikely to
overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining
‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that
the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age
distributions of the world. |
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