Economic Costs Associated to the Coronavirus Pandemic for Vietnam
The short-term impact of coronavirus outbreak (i.e., 2019-nCov) on Vietnam’s economy could be significant, as high 6-10 percent of monthly output, but short-lived if the outbreak is rapidly contained. While the recent measures by the Government to...
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| Format: | Policy Note |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/649871589877237199/Economic-Costs-Associated-to-the-Coronavirus-Pandemic-for-Vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33777 |
| Summary: | The short-term impact of coronavirus
outbreak (i.e., 2019-nCov) on Vietnam’s economy could be
significant, as high 6-10 percent of monthly output, but
short-lived if the outbreak is rapidly contained. While the
recent measures by the Government to limit the mobility of
people, goods, and services with China will help to prevent
the outbreak from spreading to Vietnam, they come with some
economic costs. Tourism and electronics trade are the most
vulnerable, with one-third of foreign tourists are from
China and with over 3 billion dollars per month of bilateral
trade between the two countries. The direct costs to contain
the epidemic remains relatively small but could increase
rapidly if the outbreak spreads within Vietnam, restrictions
on mobility are sustained over time and if people behavior
amplifies the initial negative impacts. Lessons from
experience of recent pandemic show that while the negative
costs could be high, the economy tends to recover rapidly
once the outbreak is contained. The estimates presented here
are highly dependent on assumptions regarding the magnitude
and the duration of the epidemic and should be considered as preliminary. |
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