Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View
The paper uses Google mobility data to identify the determinants of social distancing during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The findings for the United States indicate that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary, driven by the number of COVID-1...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/325021589288466494/Determinants-of-Social-Distancing-and-Economic-Activity-during-COVID-19-A-Global-View http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33754 |
| Summary: | The paper uses Google mobility data to
identify the determinants of social distancing during the
2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The findings for the United States
indicate that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary,
driven by the number of COVID-19 cases and proxying for
greater awareness of risk. Non-pharmaceutical interventions
such as closing nonessential businesses, sheltering in
place, and school closings are also effective, although with
a total contribution dwarfed by the voluntary actions. This
suggests that much social distancing will happen regardless
of the presence of non-pharmaceutical interventions and that
restrictions may often function more like a coordinating
device among increasingly predisposed individuals than
repressive measures per se. These results are consistent
across country income groups, with only the poorest
countries showing limited effect of non-pharmaceutical
interventions and no voluntary component, consistent with
resistance to abandon sources of livelihood. The paper also
confirms the direct impact of the voluntary component on
economic activity, by showing that the majority of the fall
in restaurant reservations in the United States and movie
spending in Sweden occurred before the imposition of any
non-pharmaceutical interventions. Widespread voluntary
de-mobilization implies that releasing constraints may not
yield a V-shaped recovery if the reduction in COVID risk is
not credible. |
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