Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa

Due to the dual shocks of the spread of the virus and lower oil prices, World Bank economists expect output of MENA to decline in 2020. This is in sharp contrast to the growth forecast of 2.6 percent published in October 2019. The growth downgrade of 3.7 percentage points is arguably a measure for t...

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Main Authors:	Arezki, Rabah, Lederman, Daniel, Abou Harb, Amani, El-Mallakh, Nelly, Fan, Rachel Yuting, Islam, Asif, Nguyen, Ha, Zouaidi, Marwane
Format:	Serial
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2020
Subjects:	CURRENT ACCOUNT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXTERNAL BALANCE FISCAL TRENDS OIL PRICES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORTS PRODUCTIVITY OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS FISCAL BALANCE CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 ECONOMIC SHOCK
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/343911586470772558/Middle-East-and-North-Africa-Economic-Update-April-2020-How-Transparency-Can-Help-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33475

id	okr-10986-33475
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-334752021-05-25T09:33:37Z Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa Arezki, Rabah Lederman, Daniel Abou Harb, Amani El-Mallakh, Nelly Fan, Rachel Yuting Islam, Asif Nguyen, Ha Zouaidi, Marwane CURRENT ACCOUNT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXTERNAL BALANCE FISCAL TRENDS OIL PRICES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORTS PRODUCTIVITY OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS FISCAL BALANCE CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 ECONOMIC SHOCK Due to the dual shocks of the spread of the virus and lower oil prices, World Bank economists expect output of MENA to decline in 2020. This is in sharp contrast to the growth forecast of 2.6 percent published in October 2019. The growth downgrade of 3.7 percentage points is arguably a measure for the costs associated with the dual shocks of Covid-19 and the oil price collapse. These numbers are tentative. The true impact depends on future developments of the dual shocks, policy and society’s response, which depends on the transparent use of health and economic data. We recommend a two-step approach: It might be desirable to focus first on responding to the health emergency and the associated economic contraction. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms associated with the persistent drop in oil prices and pre-existing challenges are also very important, but with proper external support, can wait until the health emergency subsides. Nevertheless, the MENA region has challenges that predate the crisis – it has been growing far slower than its peers. Had MENA’s growth of output per capita been the same as that of a typical peer economy over the past two decades, the region’s real output per capita would be at least 20% higher than what it is today. A large part of MENA’s low growth is arguably due to a lack of transparency. MENA is the only region that dropped in data transparency and capacity since 2005. We estimate that this has cost MENA 7-14 percent in GDP per capita losses since 2005. Lack of transparency hinders credible analyses of many important issues, two of which are highlighted in the report. First, lack of data transparency hampers credible analyses on the region’s debt sustainability – an important issue to examine after the crisis. MENA countries vary greatly in their debt reporting standards. World Bank economists and other external analysts do not have access to vital information about many types of public debt. Second, the unemployment and informality numbers in the region are debatable since MENA countries rely on varying definitions of employment with little harmonization across the region or with respect to international standards. This affects analyses of unemployment and informality. 2020-03-25T15:41:44Z 2020-03-25T15:41:44Z 2020-04-09 Serial http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/343911586470772558/Middle-East-and-North-Africa-Economic-Update-April-2020-How-Transparency-Can-Help-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa 978-1-4648-1561-4 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33475 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Publication Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
topic	CURRENT ACCOUNT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXTERNAL BALANCE FISCAL TRENDS OIL PRICES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORTS PRODUCTIVITY OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS FISCAL BALANCE CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 ECONOMIC SHOCK
spellingShingle	CURRENT ACCOUNT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXTERNAL BALANCE FISCAL TRENDS OIL PRICES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORTS PRODUCTIVITY OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS FISCAL BALANCE CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 ECONOMIC SHOCK Arezki, Rabah Lederman, Daniel Abou Harb, Amani El-Mallakh, Nelly Fan, Rachel Yuting Islam, Asif Nguyen, Ha Zouaidi, Marwane Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
description	Due to the dual shocks of the spread of the virus and lower oil prices, World Bank economists expect output of MENA to decline in 2020. This is in sharp contrast to the growth forecast of 2.6 percent published in October 2019. The growth downgrade of 3.7 percentage points is arguably a measure for the costs associated with the dual shocks of Covid-19 and the oil price collapse. These numbers are tentative. The true impact depends on future developments of the dual shocks, policy and society’s response, which depends on the transparent use of health and economic data. We recommend a two-step approach: It might be desirable to focus first on responding to the health emergency and the associated economic contraction. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms associated with the persistent drop in oil prices and pre-existing challenges are also very important, but with proper external support, can wait until the health emergency subsides. Nevertheless, the MENA region has challenges that predate the crisis – it has been growing far slower than its peers. Had MENA’s growth of output per capita been the same as that of a typical peer economy over the past two decades, the region’s real output per capita would be at least 20% higher than what it is today. A large part of MENA’s low growth is arguably due to a lack of transparency. MENA is the only region that dropped in data transparency and capacity since 2005. We estimate that this has cost MENA 7-14 percent in GDP per capita losses since 2005. Lack of transparency hinders credible analyses of many important issues, two of which are highlighted in the report. First, lack of data transparency hampers credible analyses on the region’s debt sustainability – an important issue to examine after the crisis. MENA countries vary greatly in their debt reporting standards. World Bank economists and other external analysts do not have access to vital information about many types of public debt. Second, the unemployment and informality numbers in the region are debatable since MENA countries rely on varying definitions of employment with little harmonization across the region or with respect to international standards. This affects analyses of unemployment and informality.
format	Serial
author	Arezki, Rabah Lederman, Daniel Abou Harb, Amani El-Mallakh, Nelly Fan, Rachel Yuting Islam, Asif Nguyen, Ha Zouaidi, Marwane
author_facet	Arezki, Rabah Lederman, Daniel Abou Harb, Amani El-Mallakh, Nelly Fan, Rachel Yuting Islam, Asif Nguyen, Ha Zouaidi, Marwane
author_sort	Arezki, Rabah
title	Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
title_short	Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
title_full	Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
title_fullStr	Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
title_full_unstemmed	Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa
title_sort	middle east and north africa economic update, april 2020 : how transparency can help the middle east and north africa
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/343911586470772558/Middle-East-and-North-Africa-Economic-Update-April-2020-How-Transparency-Can-Help-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33475
_version_	1764478843491450880

Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa

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