Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) has generally disappointed since the 2009 global recession, with sizable forecast downgrades in most years. EMDEs continue to face downside risks to growth outlook over the next couple of...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/787881584027048587/Prospects-Risks-and-Vulnerabilities-in-Emerging-and-Developing-Economies-Lessons-from-the-Past-Decade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33441 |
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okr-10986-334412022-09-20T00:13:03Z Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade Ruch, Franz Ulrich VULNERABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL OUTPUT POTENTIAL GROWTH RISKS EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES SHOCKS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) has generally disappointed since the 2009 global recession, with sizable forecast downgrades in most years. EMDEs continue to face downside risks to growth outlook over the next couple of years. These include heightened global policy uncertainty, trade tensions, spillovers from weaker-than-expected growth in major economies, and disorderly financial market developments. These risks are accompanied by region-specific risks, including geopolitical tensions, armed conflict, and severe weather events. If risks materialize, their impact on EMDEs depends on the magnitude of spillovers and domestic vulnerabilities. Since the 2009 global recession, external, corporate sector and sovereign vulnerabilities have risen in most EMDEs, leaving them less well-prepared for future shocks. Low-income countries, in particular, face elevated vulnerabilities, with about 40 percent of them currently in debt distress. Over the longer run, EMDEs also face weakening potential growth, reflecting decelerations in capital accumulation and productivity growth, as well as demographic headwinds. These constraints are likely to hamper growth in the next decade unless they are mitigated by ambitious and credible reform agendas. 2020-03-19T14:46:48Z 2020-03-19T14:46:48Z 2020-03 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/787881584027048587/Prospects-Risks-and-Vulnerabilities-in-Emerging-and-Developing-Economies-Lessons-from-the-Past-Decade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33441 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9181 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
VULNERABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL OUTPUT POTENTIAL GROWTH RISKS EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES SHOCKS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS |
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VULNERABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL OUTPUT POTENTIAL GROWTH RISKS EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES SHOCKS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ruch, Franz Ulrich Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9181 |
| description |
Growth in emerging markets and
developing economies (EMDEs) has generally disappointed
since the 2009 global recession, with sizable forecast
downgrades in most years. EMDEs continue to face downside
risks to growth outlook over the next couple of years. These
include heightened global policy uncertainty, trade
tensions, spillovers from weaker-than-expected growth in
major economies, and disorderly financial market
developments. These risks are accompanied by region-specific
risks, including geopolitical tensions, armed conflict, and
severe weather events. If risks materialize, their impact on
EMDEs depends on the magnitude of spillovers and domestic
vulnerabilities. Since the 2009 global recession, external,
corporate sector and sovereign vulnerabilities have risen in
most EMDEs, leaving them less well-prepared for future
shocks. Low-income countries, in particular, face elevated
vulnerabilities, with about 40 percent of them currently in
debt distress. Over the longer run, EMDEs also face
weakening potential growth, reflecting decelerations in
capital accumulation and productivity growth, as well as
demographic headwinds. These constraints are likely to
hamper growth in the next decade unless they are mitigated
by ambitious and credible reform agendas. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
| author_facet |
Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
| author_sort |
Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
| title |
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| title_short |
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| title_full |
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| title_fullStr |
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade |
| title_sort |
prospects, risks, and vulnerabilities in emerging and developing economies : lessons from the past decade |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/787881584027048587/Prospects-Risks-and-Vulnerabilities-in-Emerging-and-Developing-Economies-Lessons-from-the-Past-Decade http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33441 |
| _version_ |
1764478770592350208 |