Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulner...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Heltberg, Rasmus, Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ADAPTATION ADAPTATION DEFICIT ADAPTATION EFFORTS ADAPTATION INTERVENTIONS ADAPTATION PLANNERS ADAPTATION PLANNING ADAPTATION PRACTICE ADAPTATION PROGRAM ADAPTATION RESPONSES ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTING ADAPTIVE ACTIONS ADAPTIVE BEHAVIORS ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ADAPTIVE RESPONSES ALTITUDE ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE CALCULATION CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGE RISK CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY CLIMATE EVENTS CLIMATE INVESTMENT CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICY CLIMATE RESILIENCE CLIMATE RISKS CLIMATE VULNERABILITY CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC CHANGES CROP DIVERSIFICATION CROP LAND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DRY MONTHS EARTHQUAKE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC STATUS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY EXTREME TEMPERATURES EXTREME VALUES FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS FOOD INSECURITY FOOD SECURITY FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES HOT MONTHS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY HOUSEHOLD LEVEL HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INFORMATION SYSTEMS INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LAND MANAGEMENT LAND USE LEVEL OF EDUCATION MALADAPTATION METEOROLOGICAL DATA MIGRANT MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORTALITY MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL LEVEL NATURAL CLIMATIC DISASTERS NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCE POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION DENSITY PRECIPITATION PROGRESS PUBLIC SERVICE PUBLIC SERVICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESPECT RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL AREAS SERVICE AREAS SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL DIMENSIONS SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIAL LIMITS TO ADAPTATION SOCIAL POLICIES SOCIAL PROTECTION MECHANISMS SOCIAL VULNERABILITY SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS TEMPERATURE VARIATION URBAN AREAS URBAN POPULATION URBANIZATION VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110131155750 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3324

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Summary:	This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Index results for Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable areas and defending economically important areas. These results lend support to at least some elements of current adaptation practice.

Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

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