Variance and Skewness in Density Predictions : A World GDP Growth Forecast Assessment
The paper introduces a Bayesian cross-entropy forecast (BCEF) procedure to assess the variance and skewness in density forecasting. The methodology decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk factors. The method assigns probabil...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/802551502718519493/Variance-and-Skewness-in-Density-Predictions-A-World-GDP-Growth-Forecast-Assessment http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33116 |