Growth Volatility in Belize

An open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is developed for Belize with the objective of identifying the main factors behind the volatility in output growth. A MarkovSwitching VAR (MS-VAR) model is also employed to explore whether the response to shocks is the similar across diffe...

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Main Authors:	Longmore, Rohan, Antonio, Matias, Oliveira, Luiz Edgard, McLeod, Roger
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	ECONOMIC VOLATILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION TRADE INTEGRATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/677811576083446081/Growth-Volatility-in-Belize http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33068

id	okr-10986-33068
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-330682021-05-25T09:31:16Z Growth Volatility in Belize Longmore, Rohan Antonio, Matias Oliveira, Luiz Edgard McLeod, Roger ECONOMIC VOLATILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION TRADE INTEGRATION An open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is developed for Belize with the objective of identifying the main factors behind the volatility in output growth. A MarkovSwitching VAR (MS-VAR) model is also employed to explore whether the response to shocks is the similar across different economic states. The paper finds that Belize is one of the most volatile economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. Most this is volatility is driven by fluctuations in the economic growth of its main trading partners – United States and Mexico - and domestic price movements. The impact of these variables differs significantly depending on the prevailing economic conditions in Belize. Notably, the influence of trading partner’s GDP on growth weakens during periods of intense volatility suggesting that the authorities may need to invest more in developing countercyclical measures to minimize the duration of instability. The paper also confirms that higher output volatility undermines the pace of economic expansion in the country and has kept growth in Belize lower than otherwise possible. 2019-12-23T17:39:37Z 2019-12-23T17:39:37Z 2019-10 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/677811576083446081/Growth-Volatility-in-Belize http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33068 English MTI Discussion Paper,no. 17; CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Belize
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ECONOMIC VOLATILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION TRADE INTEGRATION
spellingShingle	ECONOMIC VOLATILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION TRADE INTEGRATION Longmore, Rohan Antonio, Matias Oliveira, Luiz Edgard McLeod, Roger Growth Volatility in Belize
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Belize
relation	MTI Discussion Paper,no. 17;
description	An open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is developed for Belize with the objective of identifying the main factors behind the volatility in output growth. A MarkovSwitching VAR (MS-VAR) model is also employed to explore whether the response to shocks is the similar across different economic states. The paper finds that Belize is one of the most volatile economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. Most this is volatility is driven by fluctuations in the economic growth of its main trading partners – United States and Mexico - and domestic price movements. The impact of these variables differs significantly depending on the prevailing economic conditions in Belize. Notably, the influence of trading partner’s GDP on growth weakens during periods of intense volatility suggesting that the authorities may need to invest more in developing countercyclical measures to minimize the duration of instability. The paper also confirms that higher output volatility undermines the pace of economic expansion in the country and has kept growth in Belize lower than otherwise possible.
format	Working Paper
author	Longmore, Rohan Antonio, Matias Oliveira, Luiz Edgard McLeod, Roger
author_facet	Longmore, Rohan Antonio, Matias Oliveira, Luiz Edgard McLeod, Roger
author_sort	Longmore, Rohan
title	Growth Volatility in Belize
title_short	Growth Volatility in Belize
title_full	Growth Volatility in Belize
title_fullStr	Growth Volatility in Belize
title_full_unstemmed	Growth Volatility in Belize
title_sort	growth volatility in belize
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/677811576083446081/Growth-Volatility-in-Belize http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33068
_version_	1764477968856383488

Growth Volatility in Belize

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