Crossing the Threshold : An Analysis of IBRD Graduation Policy

According to World Bank policy, countries remain eligible to borrow from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development until they are able to sustain long-term development without further recourse to Bank financing. Graduation from the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Heckelman, Jac C., Knack, Stephen, Rogers, F. Halsey
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ACCESS TO CAPITAL ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS ACCESS TO FUNDS ACCOUNTABILITY ACCOUNTING BALANCE SHEET BANK FINANCING BANK GOVERNORS BANK LENDING BANK LOANS BANK MANAGEMENT BANK POLICY BANKING CRISES BANKING CRISIS BENCHMARK BOND BOND ISSUANCE BOND RATINGS BORROWER BORROWING BORROWING COUNTRY BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL SURPLUS CHECKS COMMODITY COUNTRY DUMMY COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS COUNTRY RISK CREDIT MARKETS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATINGS CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISES DEBT DEBT CRISES DEBT OBLIGATIONS DECISION MAKING DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING ECONOMIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISBURSEMENT DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SITUATION EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTREME POVERTY FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOREIGN MARKETS FREE SPEECH GDP GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GLOBAL INFLATION GLOBAL MARKETS GNP GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOME MEASURES INCOME TAX INCOME VOLATILITY INCOMES INFANT MORTALITY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS INTERNATIONAL POLITICS LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LENDING DECISIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN SIZE M2 MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARKET ACCESS MARKET CONDITIONS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY SUPPLY MORAL HAZARD MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL PRICES PARTICULAR COUNTRY PER CAPITA INCOME POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CREDIT PRIVATE FINANCING PRIVATE INVESTMENT PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER RATING AGENCIES REAL INCOME RESOURCE MOBILIZATION RETURN RISK OF DEFAULT RULE OF LAW SMALL COUNTRIES SMALL COUNTRY SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL CONFLICT SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOVEREIGN BOND SOVEREIGN DEBT SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES TAX TAX RATES TAX REVENUES TAXATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSITION COUNTRIES TRANSITION ECONOMIES TRANSITION ECONOMY VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY VOTERS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110113164710 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3304

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Summary:	According to World Bank policy, countries remain eligible to borrow from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development until they are able to sustain long-term development without further recourse to Bank financing. Graduation from the Bank is not an automatic consequence of reaching a particular income level, but rather is supposed to be based on a determination of whether the country has reached a level of institutional development and capital-market access that enables it to sustain its own development process without recourse to Bank funding. This paper assesses how International Bank for Reconstruction and Development graduation policy operates in practice, investigating what income and non-income factors appear to have influenced graduation decisions in recent decades, based on panel data for 1982 through 2008. Explanatory variables include the per-capita income of the country, as well as measures of institutional development and market access that are cited as criteria by the graduation policy, and other plausible explanatory variables that capture the levels of economic development and vulnerability of the country. The authors find that the observed correlates of Bank graduation are generally consistent with the stated policy. Countries that are wealthier, more creditworthy, more institutionally developed, and less vulnerable to shocks are more likely to have graduated. Predicted probabilities generated by the model correspond closely to the actual graduation and de-graduation experiences of most countries (such as Korea and Trinidad and Tobago), and suggest that Hungary and Latvia may have graduated prematurely -- a prediction consistent with their subsequent return to borrowing from the Bank in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Crossing the Threshold : An Analysis of IBRD Graduation Policy

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