Credit Cycles in Countries in the MENA Region—Do They Exist? Do They Matter?
This paper estimates private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth....
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/553751574179796542/Credit-Cycles-in-Countries-in-the-MENA-Region-Do-They-Exist-Do-They-Matter http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32671 |
| Summary: | This paper estimates private sector
credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and
oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral
analysis of real private sector credit growth. In addition,
the paper estimates the credit cycles for several Western
countries and Japan. The analysis finds substantial
differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in
the Middle East and North Africa and developed countries.
Over 1964-2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North
Africa do not appear to be associated with real gross
domestic product growth. They only explain a fraction of the
growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be
synchronized across oil exporters and oil importers. |
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