Union of Comoros - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
The Union of Comoros remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb shocks is “limited.” All debt burden indicators exhibit a continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export approaching its threshold at the end of...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/152471570789360222/Union-of-Comoros-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32579 |
| Summary: | The Union of Comoros remains at moderate
risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb
shocks is “limited.” All debt burden indicators exhibit a
continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export
approaching its threshold at the end of the assessment
horizon (2029) under the baseline scenario. (Thresholds
reflect “medium” capacity to carry debt). The reduced space
to absorb shocks reflects the taking on of a large new loan,
a downward revision of projected exports in line with lower
export prices and impacts of Cyclone Kenneth on debt
accumulation. Shock scenarios indicate vulnerability to a
deterioration of export performance, natural disasters, and
exchange rate instability. Comoros’ overall risk of debt
distress remains moderate, given that domestic debt is
expected to remain minimal. The authorities need to
strengthen policies to improve macroeconomic performance
including by making faster progress on domestic resource
mobilization and broadening the export base. The authorities
should proceed cautiously on taking up any new debt and may
wish to largely avoid new non-concessional debt. |
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