Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar’s debt carrying capacity rather than a c...

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Main Authors:	World Bank, International Monetary Fund
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/900641570834007200/Madagascar-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32569

id	okr-10986-32569
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-325692021-05-25T09:28:49Z Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis World Bank International Monetary Fund DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar’s debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical. 2019-10-17T19:22:51Z 2019-10-17T19:22:51Z 2019-08 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/900641570834007200/Madagascar-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32569 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Debt and Creditworthiness Study Africa Madagascar
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
spellingShingle	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION World Bank International Monetary Fund Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
geographic_facet	Africa Madagascar
description	Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar’s debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical.
format	Report
author	World Bank International Monetary Fund
author_facet	World Bank International Monetary Fund
author_sort	World Bank
title	Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
title_short	Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
title_full	Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
title_fullStr	Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
title_full_unstemmed	Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
title_sort	republic of madagascar - joint world bank-imf debt sustainability analysis
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/900641570834007200/Madagascar-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32569
_version_	1764476828091678720

Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

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