Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019

Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	World Bank, International Monetary Fund
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/652651570770126010/Guinea-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32560

id	okr-10986-32560
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-325602021-05-25T09:28:35Z Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019 World Bank International Monetary Fund DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over 2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea’s external and public debt position at end-2018 improved compared to the December 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growth estimates in 2016–17, lower-than-anticipated external loan disbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability. 2019-10-17T18:06:13Z 2019-10-17T18:06:13Z 2019-08 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/652651570770126010/Guinea-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32560 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Debt and Creditworthiness Study Africa Guinea
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
spellingShingle	DEBT DISTRESS DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION World Bank International Monetary Fund Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
geographic_facet	Africa Guinea
description	Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over 2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea’s external and public debt position at end-2018 improved compared to the December 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growth estimates in 2016–17, lower-than-anticipated external loan disbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability.
format	Report
author	World Bank International Monetary Fund
author_facet	World Bank International Monetary Fund
author_sort	World Bank
title	Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
title_short	Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
title_full	Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
title_fullStr	Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
title_full_unstemmed	Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
title_sort	guinea - joint world bank-imf debt sustainability analysis update : august 2019
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/652651570770126010/Guinea-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32560
_version_	1764476795995815936

Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019

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