Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update : August 2019
Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/652651570770126010/Guinea-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-August-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32560 |
| Summary: | Guinea is at moderate risk of external
debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external
debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below
their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that
debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks
materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all
solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds
for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt
distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the
application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal
breach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over
2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of the
recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea’s external and
public debt position at end-2018 improved compared to the
December 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growth
estimates in 2016–17, lower-than-anticipated external loan
disbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. A
prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the
concessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans
to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will
be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability. |
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