The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis

The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis

The Phillips curve is central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In particular, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is a valuable tool to describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and real marginal cost or an outpu...

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Main Authors: Belinga, Vincent, Doukali, Mohamed
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:
INFLATION
PHILLIPS CURVE
ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION
MONETARY POLICY
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/960631568727358615/The-Moroccan-New-Keynesian-Phillips-Curve-A-Structural-Econometric-Analysis
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32426
id okr-10986-32426
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-324262022-09-20T00:14:58Z The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis Belinga, Vincent Doukali, Mohamed INFLATION PHILLIPS CURVE ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION MONETARY POLICY The Phillips curve is central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In particular, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is a valuable tool to describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. However, economists have had difficulty applying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to real-world data due to empirical limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations by using an identification-robust estimation method called the Tikhonov Jackknife instrumental variables estimator. Data from Morocco are used to examine the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to explain Moroccan inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that by adding more information to the hybrid version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model by increasing the number of moment conditions, the inflation dynamics in Morocco can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. This framework suggests that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve would be a strong candidate for short-run inflation forecasting. 2019-09-19T19:41:07Z 2019-09-19T19:41:07Z 2019-09 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/960631568727358615/The-Moroccan-New-Keynesian-Phillips-Curve-A-Structural-Econometric-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32426 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9018 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Middle East and North Africa Morocco
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic INFLATION
PHILLIPS CURVE
ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION
MONETARY POLICY
spellingShingle INFLATION
PHILLIPS CURVE
ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION
MONETARY POLICY
Belinga, Vincent
Doukali, Mohamed
The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
geographic_facet Middle East and North Africa
Morocco
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9018
description The Phillips curve is central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In particular, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is a valuable tool to describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. However, economists have had difficulty applying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to real-world data due to empirical limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations by using an identification-robust estimation method called the Tikhonov Jackknife instrumental variables estimator. Data from Morocco are used to examine the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to explain Moroccan inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that by adding more information to the hybrid version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model by increasing the number of moment conditions, the inflation dynamics in Morocco can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. This framework suggests that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve would be a strong candidate for short-run inflation forecasting.
format Working Paper
author Belinga, Vincent
Doukali, Mohamed
author_facet Belinga, Vincent
Doukali, Mohamed
author_sort Belinga, Vincent
title The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
title_short The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
title_full The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
title_fullStr The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
title_full_unstemmed The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis
title_sort moroccan new keynesian phillips curve : a structural econometric analysis
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2019
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/960631568727358615/The-Moroccan-New-Keynesian-Phillips-Curve-A-Structural-Econometric-Analysis
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32426
_version_ 1764476525377224704

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