Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality

Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to one off effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook. Russia’s...

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Main Author:	World Bank Group
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE EXTERNAL SHOCK BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME LABOR MARKET POVERTY UNEMPLOYMENT MONETARY POLICY BANKING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT LABOR POLICY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332081560895493011/Russia-Economic-Report-Modest-Growth-Focus-on-Informality http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31933

id	okr-10986-31933
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-319332021-05-25T09:25:04Z Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality World Bank Group ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE EXTERNAL SHOCK BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME LABOR MARKET POVERTY UNEMPLOYMENT MONETARY POLICY BANKING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT LABOR POLICY Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to one off effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook. Russia’s macro-fiscal buffers remain strong, with fiscal surpluses across all tiers of government and low public-debt levels. When compared to advanced economies, Russia spends less on health and education. Rebalancing in favor of these categories could improve the overall efficiency of public spending. Short-term inflationary risks have abated, with the Bank of Russia signaling a return to a neutral policy rate. Lending activity is recovering, but the banking sector remains afflicted with high concentration and state dominance. Having eased slightly, the poverty rate remains in double digits with many households close to the poverty line and lacking formal employment. Informal employment is rising in the face of close-to-zero net job creation by medium-sized and large formal enterprises. Key risks to medium-term growth include the expansion of economic sanctions, renewed financial turmoil in EMDEs, a dramatic drop in oil prices, and souring of the global trade environment. The recent double-digit expansion in household credit may also pose a risk to financial stability in the case of a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. 2019-06-24T20:26:12Z 2019-06-24T20:26:12Z 2019-06 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332081560895493011/Russia-Economic-Report-Modest-Growth-Focus-on-Informality http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31933 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE EXTERNAL SHOCK BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME LABOR MARKET POVERTY UNEMPLOYMENT MONETARY POLICY BANKING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT LABOR POLICY
spellingShingle	ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE EXTERNAL SHOCK BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME LABOR MARKET POVERTY UNEMPLOYMENT MONETARY POLICY BANKING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT LABOR POLICY World Bank Group Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation
description	Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to one off effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook. Russia’s macro-fiscal buffers remain strong, with fiscal surpluses across all tiers of government and low public-debt levels. When compared to advanced economies, Russia spends less on health and education. Rebalancing in favor of these categories could improve the overall efficiency of public spending. Short-term inflationary risks have abated, with the Bank of Russia signaling a return to a neutral policy rate. Lending activity is recovering, but the banking sector remains afflicted with high concentration and state dominance. Having eased slightly, the poverty rate remains in double digits with many households close to the poverty line and lacking formal employment. Informal employment is rising in the face of close-to-zero net job creation by medium-sized and large formal enterprises. Key risks to medium-term growth include the expansion of economic sanctions, renewed financial turmoil in EMDEs, a dramatic drop in oil prices, and souring of the global trade environment. The recent double-digit expansion in household credit may also pose a risk to financial stability in the case of a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.
format	Report
author	World Bank Group
author_facet	World Bank Group
author_sort	World Bank Group
title	Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
title_short	Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
title_full	Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
title_fullStr	Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
title_full_unstemmed	Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
title_sort	russia economic report, no. 41, june 2019 : modest growth - focus on informality
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332081560895493011/Russia-Economic-Report-Modest-Growth-Focus-on-Informality http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31933
_version_	1764475397318115328

Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019 : Modest Growth - Focus on Informality

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