Transportation and Supply Chain Resilience in the United Republic of Tanzania : Assessing the Supply-Chain Impacts of Disaster-Induced Transportation Disruptions
The economy of the United Republic of Tanzania is growing fast but remains vulnerable to disasters, which are likely to worsen with climate change. Its transportation system, which mainly consist of roads, often get disrupted by floods. How could t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/203311560795432285/Transportation-and-Supply-Chain-Resilience-in-the-United-Republic-of-Tanzania http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31909 |
| Summary: | The economy of the United Republic of
Tanzania is growing fast but remains vulnerable to
disasters, which are likely to worsen with climate change.
Its transportation system, which mainly consist of roads,
often get disrupted by floods. How could the resilience of
the transportation infrastructures be improved? We formulate
a new type of model, called DisruptSCT, which brings
together the strength of two different approaches: network
criticality analyses and input–output models. Using a
variety of data, we spatially disaggregate production,
consumption, and input–output relationships. Plugged into a
dynamic agent-based model, these downscaled data allow us to
simulate the disruption of transportation infrastructures,
their direct impacts on firms, and how these impacts
propagate along supply chains and lead to losses to
households. These indirect losses generally affect people
that are not directly hit by disasters. Their intensity
nonlinearly increases with the duration of the initial
disruption. Supply chains generate interdependencies that
amplify disruptions for nonprimary products, such as
processed food and manufacturing products. We identify
bottlenecks in the network. But their criticality depends on
the supply chain we are looking at. For instance, some
infrastructures are critical to some agents, say
international buyers, but of little use to others.
Investment priorities vary with policy objectives, e.g.,
support health services, improve food security, promote
trade competitiveness. Resilience-enhancing strategies can
act on the supply side of transportation, by improving the
quality of targeted infrastructure, developing alternative
corridors, building capacity to accelerate post-disaster
recovery. On the other hand, policies could also support
coping mechanisms within supply chains, such as sourcing and
inventory strategies. Our results help articulate these
different policies and adapt them to specific contexts. |
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