Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach

This paper applies an innovative method to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from 2004-05, 2009-10, and 2011-12 to impute household expenditure into a survey of durable goods e...

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Main Authors:	Newhouse, David, Vyas, Pallavi
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HEAD COUNT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/569341560173176277/Estimating-Poverty-in-India-without-Expenditure-Data-A-Survey-to-Survey-Imputation-Approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31868

id	okr-10986-31868
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-318682022-09-19T12:16:52Z Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach Newhouse, David Vyas, Pallavi POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HEAD COUNT This paper applies an innovative method to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from 2004-05, 2009-10, and 2011-12 to impute household expenditure into a survey of durable goods expenditure conducted in 2014-15. At the $1.90 per day international poverty line, the preferred model predicts a 2014-15 head- count poverty rate of 10 percent in urban areas and 16.4 percent in rural areas, implying a poverty rate of 14.6 percent nationally. The implied poverty elasticity with respect to growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is within the range of past experience, and states with higher gross domestic product growth saw greater predicted poverty reductions. In validation tests, the model's predictions perform comparably to the World Bank's current adjustment method when predicting for 2011-12 but they are far more accurate when predicting for 2004-05. Three alternative specifications give moderately higher estimates of poverty. The results indicate that survey-to-survey imputation, when feasible, is a preferable alternative to the current method used to adjust survey-based poverty estimates to later years. 2019-06-13T20:45:12Z 2019-06-13T20:45:12Z 2019-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/569341560173176277/Estimating-Poverty-in-India-without-Expenditure-Data-A-Survey-to-Survey-Imputation-Approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31868 English Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 8878; CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper South Asia India
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HEAD COUNT
spellingShingle	POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HEAD COUNT Newhouse, David Vyas, Pallavi Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
geographic_facet	South Asia India
relation	Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 8878;
description	This paper applies an innovative method to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from 2004-05, 2009-10, and 2011-12 to impute household expenditure into a survey of durable goods expenditure conducted in 2014-15. At the $1.90 per day international poverty line, the preferred model predicts a 2014-15 head- count poverty rate of 10 percent in urban areas and 16.4 percent in rural areas, implying a poverty rate of 14.6 percent nationally. The implied poverty elasticity with respect to growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is within the range of past experience, and states with higher gross domestic product growth saw greater predicted poverty reductions. In validation tests, the model's predictions perform comparably to the World Bank's current adjustment method when predicting for 2011-12 but they are far more accurate when predicting for 2004-05. Three alternative specifications give moderately higher estimates of poverty. The results indicate that survey-to-survey imputation, when feasible, is a preferable alternative to the current method used to adjust survey-based poverty estimates to later years.
format	Working Paper
author	Newhouse, David Vyas, Pallavi
author_facet	Newhouse, David Vyas, Pallavi
author_sort	Newhouse, David
title	Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
title_short	Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
title_full	Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
title_fullStr	Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
title_sort	estimating poverty in india without expenditure data : a survey-to-survey imputation approach
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/569341560173176277/Estimating-Poverty-in-India-without-Expenditure-Data-A-Survey-to-Survey-Imputation-Approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31868
_version_	1764475254237822976

Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach

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