Estimating Poverty in India without Expenditure Data : A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach
This paper applies an innovative method to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from 2004-05, 2009-10, and 2011-12 to impute household expenditure into a survey of durable goods e...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/569341560173176277/Estimating-Poverty-in-India-without-Expenditure-Data-A-Survey-to-Survey-Imputation-Approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31868 |
| Summary: | This paper applies an innovative method
to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent
expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from
2004-05, 2009-10, and 2011-12 to impute household
expenditure into a survey of durable goods expenditure
conducted in 2014-15. At the $1.90 per day international
poverty line, the preferred model predicts a 2014-15 head-
count poverty rate of 10 percent in urban areas and 16.4
percent in rural areas, implying a poverty rate of 14.6
percent nationally. The implied poverty elasticity with
respect to growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
is within the range of past experience, and states with
higher gross domestic product growth saw greater predicted
poverty reductions. In validation tests, the model's
predictions perform comparably to the World Bank's
current adjustment method when predicting for 2011-12 but
they are far more accurate when predicting for 2004-05.
Three alternative specifications give moderately higher
estimates of poverty. The results indicate that
survey-to-survey imputation, when feasible, is a preferable
alternative to the current method used to adjust
survey-based poverty estimates to later years. |
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