Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies

This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015...

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Main Author:	Mendez Ramos, Fabian
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	POVERTY INCOME DISTRIBUTION SHARED PROSPERITY GINI COEFFICIENT INEQUALITY NATURAL RESOURCES ECONOMIC GROWTH
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/984581556818835320/Uncertainty-in-Ex-Ante-Poverty-and-Income-Distribution-Insights-from-Output-Growth-and-Natural-Resource-Country-Typologies http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31666

id	okr-10986-31666
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-316662021-10-24T00:22:26Z Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies Mendez Ramos, Fabian POVERTY INCOME DISTRIBUTION SHARED PROSPERITY GINI COEFFICIENT INEQUALITY NATURAL RESOURCES ECONOMIC GROWTH This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in resource-output oriented countries and economies with low rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030; though, significant downside risks could increase wealth inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030. Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps across the studied country typologies. 2019-05-09T20:29:57Z 2019-05-09T20:29:57Z 2019-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/984581556818835320/Uncertainty-in-Ex-Ante-Poverty-and-Income-Distribution-Insights-from-Output-Growth-and-Natural-Resource-Country-Typologies http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31666 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8841 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	POVERTY INCOME DISTRIBUTION SHARED PROSPERITY GINI COEFFICIENT INEQUALITY NATURAL RESOURCES ECONOMIC GROWTH
spellingShingle	POVERTY INCOME DISTRIBUTION SHARED PROSPERITY GINI COEFFICIENT INEQUALITY NATURAL RESOURCES ECONOMIC GROWTH Mendez Ramos, Fabian Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8841
description	This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in resource-output oriented countries and economies with low rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030; though, significant downside risks could increase wealth inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030. Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps across the studied country typologies.
format	Working Paper
author	Mendez Ramos, Fabian
author_facet	Mendez Ramos, Fabian
author_sort	Mendez Ramos, Fabian
title	Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
title_short	Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
title_full	Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
title_fullStr	Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
title_full_unstemmed	Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
title_sort	uncertainty in ex-ante poverty and income distribution : insights from output growth and natural resource country typologies
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/984581556818835320/Uncertainty-in-Ex-Ante-Poverty-and-Income-Distribution-Insights-from-Output-Growth-and-Natural-Resource-Country-Typologies http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31666
_version_	1764474859269652480

Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies

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