Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/984581556818835320/Uncertainty-in-Ex-Ante-Poverty-and-Income-Distribution-Insights-from-Output-Growth-and-Natural-Resource-Country-Typologies http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31666 |
| Summary: | This paper studies future poverty,
inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel
data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings
suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in
absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030.
However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in
resource-output oriented countries and economies with low
rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high
growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty
levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country
aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030;
though, significant downside risks could increase wealth
inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030.
Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of
the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps
across the studied country typologies. |
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