The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts

China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economi...

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Main Authors:	Maliszewska, Maryla, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POVERTY ENVIRONMENT TRADE REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE EMISSIONS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/126471554923176405/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Economic-Poverty-and-Environmental-Impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31543

id	okr-10986-31543
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-315432022-09-20T00:11:16Z The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts Maliszewska, Maryla van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POVERTY ENVIRONMENT TRADE REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE EMISSIONS China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economic integration and development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non–Belt and Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize gains from the Belt and Road Initiative–induced trade cost declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures 82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative could contribute to lifting 8.7 million people from extreme poverty and 34 million from moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions. 2019-04-11T21:31:54Z 2019-04-11T21:31:54Z 2019-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/126471554923176405/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Economic-Poverty-and-Environmental-Impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31543 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8814 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific China India
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POVERTY ENVIRONMENT TRADE REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE EMISSIONS
spellingShingle	BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POVERTY ENVIRONMENT TRADE REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE EMISSIONS Maliszewska, Maryla van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific China India
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8814
description	China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economic integration and development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non–Belt and Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize gains from the Belt and Road Initiative–induced trade cost declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures 82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative could contribute to lifting 8.7 million people from extreme poverty and 34 million from moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions.
format	Working Paper
author	Maliszewska, Maryla van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
author_facet	Maliszewska, Maryla van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
author_sort	Maliszewska, Maryla
title	The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
title_short	The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
title_full	The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
title_fullStr	The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
title_full_unstemmed	The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
title_sort	belt and road initiative : economic, poverty and environmental impacts
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/126471554923176405/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Economic-Poverty-and-Environmental-Impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31543
_version_	1764474565977702400

The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts

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