The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economi...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/126471554923176405/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Economic-Poverty-and-Environmental-Impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31543 |
| Summary: | China's Belt and Road Initiative
aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70
countries through infrastructure investment and regional
cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate
significantly the rate of economic integration and
development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals
of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure
improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non–Belt and
Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and
poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize
gains from the Belt and Road Initiative–induced trade cost
declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions
as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings
indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely
beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent
(in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into
almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market
exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures
82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in
East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative
could contribute to lifting 8.7 million people from extreme
poverty and 34 million from moderate poverty. Third, the
initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon
dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and
negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions. |
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