The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?

This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and th...

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Main Authors:	Bird, Julia, Lebrand, Mathilde, Venables, Anthony J.
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPATIAL MODELING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY GEOSPATIAL ECONOMICS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE CONNECTIVITY LABOR MOBILITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/836301554729486900/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Reshaping-Economic-Geography-in-Central-Asia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31536

id	okr-10986-31536
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-315362022-09-19T12:17:06Z The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia? Bird, Julia Lebrand, Mathilde Venables, Anthony J. REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPATIAL MODELING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY GEOSPATIAL ECONOMICS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE CONNECTIVITY LABOR MOBILITY This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline. 2019-04-11T20:46:29Z 2019-04-11T20:46:29Z 2019-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/836301554729486900/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Reshaping-Economic-Geography-in-Central-Asia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31536 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8807 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia South Asia Central Asia
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPATIAL MODELING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY GEOSPATIAL ECONOMICS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE CONNECTIVITY LABOR MOBILITY
spellingShingle	REGIONAL INTEGRATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPATIAL MODELING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY GEOSPATIAL ECONOMICS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE CONNECTIVITY LABOR MOBILITY Bird, Julia Lebrand, Mathilde Venables, Anthony J. The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia South Asia Central Asia
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8807
description	This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
format	Working Paper
author	Bird, Julia Lebrand, Mathilde Venables, Anthony J.
author_facet	Bird, Julia Lebrand, Mathilde Venables, Anthony J.
author_sort	Bird, Julia
title	The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
title_short	The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
title_full	The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
title_fullStr	The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
title_full_unstemmed	The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
title_sort	belt and road initiative : reshaping economic geography in central asia?
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/836301554729486900/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Reshaping-Economic-Geography-in-Central-Asia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31536
_version_	1764474548402520064

The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?

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