Who Wins, Who Loses? Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative
This paper examines how cities and regions within countries are likely to adjust to trade openness and improved connectivity driven by large transport investments from China's Belt and Road Initiative. The paper presents a quantitative economi...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/292161554727963020/Who-Wins-Who-Loses-Understanding-the-Spatially-Differentiated-Effects-of-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31535 |
| Summary: | This paper examines how cities and
regions within countries are likely to adjust to trade
openness and improved connectivity driven by large transport
investments from China's Belt and Road Initiative. The
paper presents a quantitative economic geography model
alongside spatially detailed information on the location of
people, economic activity, and transport costs to
international gateways in Central Asia to identify which
places are likely to gain and which places are likely to
lose. The findings are that urban hubs near border crossings
will disproportionately gain while farther out regions with
little comparative advantage will be relative losers.
Complementary investments in domestic transport networks and
trade facilitation are complementary policies and can help
in spatially spreading the benefits. However, barriers to
domestic labor mobility exacerbate spatial inequalities
whilst dampening overall welfare. |
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