Chongqing 2035 : Urban Growth Scenarios
The Chongqing 2035 scenario study compares the modeled outcomes of two different development paths, as represented by land use scenarios for projected growth of 5.8 million new urban residents and 4 million new jobs.A “Trend” scenario continues pas...
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| Format: | Technical Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/982491552388722240/Chongqing-2035-Urban-Growth-Scenarios-Technical-Report http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31387 |
| Summary: | The Chongqing 2035 scenario study
compares the modeled outcomes of two different development
paths, as represented by land use scenarios for projected
growth of 5.8 million new urban residents and 4 million new
jobs.A “Trend” scenario continues past patterns of land
development, characterized by continued centralization of
high-level employment around the existing downtown core, and
expansive superblock, office park, and industrial
development throughout the central city area. For
comparison, a “Compact Growth” scenario posits a polycentric
regional structure created through focused, walkable, mixed
use development around existing and planned transit nodes.
While other possibilities exist on the spectrum between and
around them, these two alternative futures embody the
principal development choices facing Chongqing as it looks
ahead, and serve to highlight the range of benefits and
consequences that can be expected.Urban development patterns
have substantial effects on laying the foundation for
progress in climate mitigation and environmental
sustainability. While policies that address the
technological aspects of vehicle efficiency, building
performance, and energy supply also play roles in conserving
resources and reducing emissions, the impacts of land use on
either increasing or reducing demand highlight the
fundamental role of strategic development.This technical
report describes the scenarios and their implications for
Chongqing and its residents, and the methodology behind the
RapidFire model as adapted for use in the city. Examining
the comprehensive effects of growth on a range of
performance indicators—including land consumption,
transportation mode share and auto travel, infrastructure
costs, energy use, and emissions—has shown how greatly
Chongqing’s potential urban development patterns vary in
their ability to support its growth as a global, sustainable city. |
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