Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis
This paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countries potentially involved. The initiative consists of several infrastructure investment projects to i...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/Trade-Effects-of-the-New-Silk-Road-A-Gravity-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31138 |
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okr-10986-311382022-09-20T00:14:59Z Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis Baniya, Suprabha Rocha, Nadia Ruta, Michele BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE GIS ANALYSIS TRADE FLOWS TIME SENSITIVITY INPUT-OUTPUT LINKAGES GRAVITY MODEL GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TRADE AND INVESTMENT This paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countries potentially involved. The initiative consists of several infrastructure investment projects to improve the land and maritime transportation in the Belt and Road Initiative region. The analysis first uses geo-referenced data and geographical information system analysis to compute the bilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Then, it estimates the effect of improvement in bilateral time to trade on bilateral export values and trade patterns, using a gravity model and a comparative advantage model. Finally, the analysis combines the estimates from the regression analysis with the results of the geographical information system analysis to quantify the potential trade effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper finds that (i) the Belt and Road Initiative increases trade flows among participating countries by up to 4.1 percent; (ii) these effects would be three times as large on average if trade reforms complemented the upgrading in transport infrastructure; and (iii) products that use time sensitive inputs and countries that are highly exposed to the new infrastructure and integrated in global value chains have larger trade gains. 2019-01-10T18:53:22Z 2019-01-10T18:53:22Z 2019-01 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/Trade-Effects-of-the-New-Silk-Road-A-Gravity-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31138 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8694 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific China |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE GIS ANALYSIS TRADE FLOWS TIME SENSITIVITY INPUT-OUTPUT LINKAGES GRAVITY MODEL GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TRADE AND INVESTMENT |
| spellingShingle |
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE GIS ANALYSIS TRADE FLOWS TIME SENSITIVITY INPUT-OUTPUT LINKAGES GRAVITY MODEL GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TRADE AND INVESTMENT Baniya, Suprabha Rocha, Nadia Ruta, Michele Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific China |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8694 |
| description |
This paper takes a first look at the
trade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also
referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countries
potentially involved. The initiative consists of several
infrastructure investment projects to improve the land and
maritime transportation in the Belt and Road Initiative
region. The analysis first uses geo-referenced data and
geographical information system analysis to compute the
bilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and Road
Initiative. Then, it estimates the effect of improvement in
bilateral time to trade on bilateral export values and trade
patterns, using a gravity model and a comparative advantage
model. Finally, the analysis combines the estimates from the
regression analysis with the results of the geographical
information system analysis to quantify the potential trade
effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper finds
that (i) the Belt and Road Initiative increases trade flows
among participating countries by up to 4.1 percent; (ii)
these effects would be three times as large on average if
trade reforms complemented the upgrading in transport
infrastructure; and (iii) products that use time sensitive
inputs and countries that are highly exposed to the new
infrastructure and integrated in global value chains have
larger trade gains. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Baniya, Suprabha Rocha, Nadia Ruta, Michele |
| author_facet |
Baniya, Suprabha Rocha, Nadia Ruta, Michele |
| author_sort |
Baniya, Suprabha |
| title |
Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| title_short |
Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| title_full |
Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis |
| title_sort |
trade effects of the new silk road : a gravity analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/Trade-Effects-of-the-New-Silk-Road-A-Gravity-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31138 |
| _version_ |
1764473626446266368 |