| Summary: | The International Maritime
Organization's initial strategy on reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the
international shipping sector should assess the impacts on
states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included
in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a
matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts
should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper
aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the
state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of
greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using
model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i)
identifies four areas of economic impacts and their
relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the
estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents
relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for
selecting and applying these approaches in impact
assessments.The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse
gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to
bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon
dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4
percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally
increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1
percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of
maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation
measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime
transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global
carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a
shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The
impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton
of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be
modest (−0.002 percent to −1 percent of GDP).
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