Afghanistan Development Update, August 2018
The Afghanistan Development Update is a twice-annual publication providing analysis of recent developments and presenting the World Bank team’s most-recent macroeconomic projections. The August 2018 edition focuses on the state of the economy in th...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/985851533222840038/Afghanistan-development-update http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30293 |
| Summary: | The Afghanistan Development Update is a
twice-annual publication providing analysis of recent
developments and presenting the World Bank team’s
most-recent macroeconomic projections. The August 2018
edition focuses on the state of the economy in the context
of upcoming elections, and the potential for a loss of
recent momentum as confidence declines. Special topics
address: i) the potential for trade to underpin development
in Afghanistan; ii) recent trends in poverty and welfare;
and iii) priorities for improving education quality and
coverage. Afghanistan has experienced slow growth since
2014, with the draw-down of international security forces,
accompanying reductions in international grants, and a
worsening security situation (growth has averaged 2.3
percent between 2014-2017). Following a period of political
instability after the 2014 elections, the economy has slowly
regained momentum as reforms have been implemented and
confidence restored. From a low of 1.5 percent in 2015, real
GDP growth accelerated to 2.3 percent in 2016, and is
estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017. Building momentum now
appears to be at some risk, with increasing election-related
violence, declining business confidence, worsening drought
conditions, and some apparent slowing of economic activity.
Growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2018, with substantial
downside risks arising from the prospects of political
instability around upcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections. Risks can be partly mitigated and recent momentum
maintained through: i) continued reform progress,
demonstrating to investors that the deterioration in
governance seen in 2014 will not be repeated; and ii)
continued donor commitment to sustained grant support. |
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