Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?

Trade rebounded in 2017, with trade volume growing at 4.3 percent in 2017—the fastest rate in 6 years. The recovery of trade is not limited to a few regions but is widespread, suggesting that we may be at a turning point. The largest contributions to global trade growth have come from East Asian cou...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Constantinescu, Cristina, Mattoo, Aaditya, Mulabdic, Alen, Ruta, Michele
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:	TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE VOLUME GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS TRADE POLICY SERVICES TRADE COMPETITION POLICY DEEP TRADE AGREEMENTS FREE TRADE AREA TRADE INTEGRATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PREFERENTIAL TARIFFS INEQUALITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29785

id	okr-10986-29785
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-297852021-05-25T09:14:21Z Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last? Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Mulabdic, Alen Ruta, Michele TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE VOLUME GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS TRADE POLICY SERVICES TRADE COMPETITION POLICY DEEP TRADE AGREEMENTS FREE TRADE AREA TRADE INTEGRATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PREFERENTIAL TARIFFS INEQUALITY Trade rebounded in 2017, with trade volume growing at 4.3 percent in 2017—the fastest rate in 6 years. The recovery of trade is not limited to a few regions but is widespread, suggesting that we may be at a turning point. The largest contributions to global trade growth have come from East Asian countries in the developing world and the Euro area in the developed world. Merchandise trade, which in recent years has been less resilient than services trade, picked up, growing by 4.5 percent in 2017. Cyclical factors drove better trade performance in 2017. Trade grew faster because real gross domestic product grew faster. Investment growth played a critical role because investment is the most import intensive component of aggregate demand, and capital goods production has longer global value chains (GVCs). Preliminary monthly data indicate that the import values of capital goods such as machinery and electrical equipment grew in 2017 at the fastest rates since 2012 and that they have been the most significant contributors to 2017 nonfuel import growth in the European Union and United States. The improved performance of trade may be widespread, but it is fragile. Some of the factors underlying the global trade slowdown of recent years—weak growth in GVCs and high trade policy uncertainty—are still present. In particular, there are serious risks in the trade policy domain. The share of merchandise trade that trade-restrictive measures cover remained stable at approximately 1 percent in 2017. But the portion due to trade remedy initiations—a harbinger of future protection — has increased significantly since 2015, and there are risks of policy reversals in major markets. At the same time, new deep trade agreements have recently entered into force and others are being negotiated. 2018-05-04T15:02:51Z 2018-05-04T15:02:51Z 2018-05-01 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29785 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE VOLUME GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS TRADE POLICY SERVICES TRADE COMPETITION POLICY DEEP TRADE AGREEMENTS FREE TRADE AREA TRADE INTEGRATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PREFERENTIAL TARIFFS INEQUALITY
spellingShingle	TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE VOLUME GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS TRADE POLICY SERVICES TRADE COMPETITION POLICY DEEP TRADE AGREEMENTS FREE TRADE AREA TRADE INTEGRATION PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS PREFERENTIAL TARIFFS INEQUALITY Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Mulabdic, Alen Ruta, Michele Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
description	Trade rebounded in 2017, with trade volume growing at 4.3 percent in 2017—the fastest rate in 6 years. The recovery of trade is not limited to a few regions but is widespread, suggesting that we may be at a turning point. The largest contributions to global trade growth have come from East Asian countries in the developing world and the Euro area in the developed world. Merchandise trade, which in recent years has been less resilient than services trade, picked up, growing by 4.5 percent in 2017. Cyclical factors drove better trade performance in 2017. Trade grew faster because real gross domestic product grew faster. Investment growth played a critical role because investment is the most import intensive component of aggregate demand, and capital goods production has longer global value chains (GVCs). Preliminary monthly data indicate that the import values of capital goods such as machinery and electrical equipment grew in 2017 at the fastest rates since 2012 and that they have been the most significant contributors to 2017 nonfuel import growth in the European Union and United States. The improved performance of trade may be widespread, but it is fragile. Some of the factors underlying the global trade slowdown of recent years—weak growth in GVCs and high trade policy uncertainty—are still present. In particular, there are serious risks in the trade policy domain. The share of merchandise trade that trade-restrictive measures cover remained stable at approximately 1 percent in 2017. But the portion due to trade remedy initiations—a harbinger of future protection — has increased significantly since 2015, and there are risks of policy reversals in major markets. At the same time, new deep trade agreements have recently entered into force and others are being negotiated.
format	Report
author	Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Mulabdic, Alen Ruta, Michele
author_facet	Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Mulabdic, Alen Ruta, Michele
author_sort	Constantinescu, Cristina
title	Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
title_short	Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
title_full	Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
title_fullStr	Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
title_full_unstemmed	Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?
title_sort	global trade watch 2017 : trade defies policy uncertainty–will it last?
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2018
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29785
_version_	1764470238980603904

Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?

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