Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018
Gross domestic product (GDP)1 growth is expected to have fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8 percent from 5.3 percent the year before. This contraction is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending. In the last six months, the poli...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/889001521523777495/Timor-Leste-economic-report-March-2018 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29513 |
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okr-10986-295132021-05-25T09:12:53Z Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 World Bank Group JOB CREATION ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRODUCTION OFFSHORE OIL RISK PUBLIC SPENDING ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PUBLIC FINANCE TRADE DEFORESTATION Gross domestic product (GDP)1 growth is expected to have fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8 percent from 5.3 percent the year before. This contraction is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending. In the last six months, the political impasse has worsened, with the President declaring a ‘serious institutional crisis’ and dissolving Parliament in January 2018. The current government has not been able to pass its rectification budget for 2017 nor a budget for 2018 to date. The resulting tight budget envelope has led to a sharp reduction in government expenditure of some 24 percent year-on-year, especially felt in the last three months of the year. With government expenditure making up about 75 percent of GDP, weakening expenditure has had a significant downwards impact on growth in 2017. Offshore petroleum production has continued to gradually decline over 2017 as existing fields are steadily depleted, while coffee exports were lower in 2017 due to poor weather conditions. International arrivals by air continued to grow, suggesting that the international visitor market has held up. Private consumption has been more robust in 2017, but investment, both public and private, has declined and foreign direct investment (FDI) has dried up. There remains an urgent long-term agenda of development in Timor-Leste which a new government program could focus on. Key priority reform areas include addressing the multi-sectoral challenge of severe malnutrition, improving systems of public service delivery, supporting a broadening and diversification of the economy, and putting environmental and fiscal management back on a sustainable path. Existing fiscal reserves provide a golden opportunity to achieve these reforms, but only if they are utilized to support a transition to a long-term sustainable economic and fiscal model. 2018-03-26T21:15:29Z 2018-03-26T21:15:29Z 2018-03 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/889001521523777495/Timor-Leste-economic-report-March-2018 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29513 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work East Asia and Pacific Timor-Leste |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
JOB CREATION ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRODUCTION OFFSHORE OIL RISK PUBLIC SPENDING ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PUBLIC FINANCE TRADE DEFORESTATION |
| spellingShingle |
JOB CREATION ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRODUCTION OFFSHORE OIL RISK PUBLIC SPENDING ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PUBLIC FINANCE TRADE DEFORESTATION World Bank Group Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific Timor-Leste |
| description |
Gross domestic product (GDP)1 growth is
expected to have fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8
percent from 5.3 percent the year before. This contraction
is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending. In
the last six months, the political impasse has worsened,
with the President declaring a ‘serious institutional
crisis’ and dissolving Parliament in January 2018. The
current government has not been able to pass its
rectification budget for 2017 nor a budget for 2018 to date.
The resulting tight budget envelope has led to a sharp
reduction in government expenditure of some 24 percent
year-on-year, especially felt in the last three months of
the year. With government expenditure making up about 75
percent of GDP, weakening expenditure has had a significant
downwards impact on growth in 2017. Offshore petroleum
production has continued to gradually decline over 2017 as
existing fields are steadily depleted, while coffee exports
were lower in 2017 due to poor weather conditions.
International arrivals by air continued to grow, suggesting
that the international visitor market has held up. Private
consumption has been more robust in 2017, but investment,
both public and private, has declined and foreign direct
investment (FDI) has dried up. There remains an urgent
long-term agenda of development in Timor-Leste which a new
government program could focus on. Key priority reform areas
include addressing the multi-sectoral challenge of severe
malnutrition, improving systems of public service delivery,
supporting a broadening and diversification of the economy,
and putting environmental and fiscal management back on a
sustainable path. Existing fiscal reserves provide a golden
opportunity to achieve these reforms, but only if they are
utilized to support a transition to a long-term sustainable
economic and fiscal model. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank Group |
| author_facet |
World Bank Group |
| author_sort |
World Bank Group |
| title |
Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| title_short |
Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| title_full |
Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| title_fullStr |
Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018 |
| title_sort |
timor-leste economic report, march 2018 |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/889001521523777495/Timor-Leste-economic-report-March-2018 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29513 |
| _version_ |
1764469640315011072 |