Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America

Although there is wide recognition of the negative consequences of policy volatility for countries' long-term economic growth, there is limited empirical work on this subject. One of the reasons is the difficulty of measuring policy volatility...

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Main Authors:	Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar, Eizmendi, Axel, Reyes, German
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:	POLICY STABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH VOLATILITY TEXT MINING PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIORITIES DIRICHLET ALLOCATION ALGORITHM
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/634591516387264234/Winners-never-quit-quitters-never-grow-using-text-mining-to-measure-policy-volatility-and-its-link-with-long-term-growth-in-Latin-America http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29220

id	okr-10986-29220
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-292202021-06-08T14:42:48Z Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar Eizmendi, Axel Reyes, German POLICY STABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH VOLATILITY TEXT MINING PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIORITIES DIRICHLET ALLOCATION ALGORITHM Although there is wide recognition of the negative consequences of policy volatility for countries' long-term economic growth, there is limited empirical work on this subject. One of the reasons is the difficulty of measuring policy volatility over long periods of time, especially in developing countries. This paper contributes to this literature by constructing a proxy for policy volatility that exploits the information content of the priorities conveyed in presidential speeches. The study creates a policy volatility measure using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm on a novel data set of 953 presidential speeches in 10 Latin American countries and Spain. The paper shows that the proxy for policy volatility is negatively correlated with long-term growth over 1940-2010. The results are robust to a large set of changes in the construction of the proxy for policy volatility. 2018-01-23T17:20:43Z 2018-01-23T17:20:43Z 2018-01 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/634591516387264234/Winners-never-quit-quitters-never-grow-using-text-mining-to-measure-policy-volatility-and-its-link-with-long-term-growth-in-Latin-America http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29220 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8310 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Latin America Spain
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	POLICY STABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH VOLATILITY TEXT MINING PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIORITIES DIRICHLET ALLOCATION ALGORITHM
spellingShingle	POLICY STABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH VOLATILITY TEXT MINING PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES POLITICAL ECONOMY PRIORITIES DIRICHLET ALLOCATION ALGORITHM Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar Eizmendi, Axel Reyes, German Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Latin America Spain
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8310
description	Although there is wide recognition of the negative consequences of policy volatility for countries' long-term economic growth, there is limited empirical work on this subject. One of the reasons is the difficulty of measuring policy volatility over long periods of time, especially in developing countries. This paper contributes to this literature by constructing a proxy for policy volatility that exploits the information content of the priorities conveyed in presidential speeches. The study creates a policy volatility measure using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm on a novel data set of 953 presidential speeches in 10 Latin American countries and Spain. The paper shows that the proxy for policy volatility is negatively correlated with long-term growth over 1940-2010. The results are robust to a large set of changes in the construction of the proxy for policy volatility.
format	Working Paper
author	Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar Eizmendi, Axel Reyes, German
author_facet	Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar Eizmendi, Axel Reyes, German
author_sort	Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar
title	Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
title_short	Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
title_full	Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
title_fullStr	Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
title_full_unstemmed	Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America
title_sort	winners never quit, quitters never grow : using text mining to measure policy volatility and its link with long-term growth in latin america
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2018
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/634591516387264234/Winners-never-quit-quitters-never-grow-using-text-mining-to-measure-policy-volatility-and-its-link-with-long-term-growth-in-Latin-America http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29220
_version_	1764468796024684544

Winners Never Quit, Quitters Never Grow : Using Text Mining to Measure Policy Volatility and its Link with Long-Term Growth in Latin America

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