Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution

A popular identification strategy in non-experimental panel data uses instrumental variables constructed by interacting exogenous but potentially spurious time series or spatial variables with endogenous exposure variables to generate identifying v...

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Main Authors:	Christian, Paul, Barrett, Christopher B.
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	AID DELIVERY FOOD AID HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICIES CONFLICT VIOLENCE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723981503518830111/Revisiting-the-effect-of-food-aid-on-conflict-a-methodological-caution http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27978

id	okr-10986-27978
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-279782021-06-14T10:09:39Z Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution Christian, Paul Barrett, Christopher B. AID DELIVERY FOOD AID HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICIES CONFLICT VIOLENCE A popular identification strategy in non-experimental panel data uses instrumental variables constructed by interacting exogenous but potentially spurious time series or spatial variables with endogenous exposure variables to generate identifying variation through assumptions like those of differences-in-differences estimators. Revisiting a celebrated study linking food aid and conflict shows that this strategy is susceptible to bias arising from spurious trends. Re-randomization and Monte Carlo simulations show that the strategy identifies a spurious relationship even when the true effect could be non-causal or causal in the opposite direction, invalidating the claim that aid causes conflict and providing a caution for similar strategies. 2017-08-24T22:12:10Z 2017-08-24T22:12:10Z 2017-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723981503518830111/Revisiting-the-effect-of-food-aid-on-conflict-a-methodological-caution http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27978 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8171 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AID DELIVERY FOOD AID HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICIES CONFLICT VIOLENCE
spellingShingle	AID DELIVERY FOOD AID HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICIES CONFLICT VIOLENCE Christian, Paul Barrett, Christopher B. Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8171
description	A popular identification strategy in non-experimental panel data uses instrumental variables constructed by interacting exogenous but potentially spurious time series or spatial variables with endogenous exposure variables to generate identifying variation through assumptions like those of differences-in-differences estimators. Revisiting a celebrated study linking food aid and conflict shows that this strategy is susceptible to bias arising from spurious trends. Re-randomization and Monte Carlo simulations show that the strategy identifies a spurious relationship even when the true effect could be non-causal or causal in the opposite direction, invalidating the claim that aid causes conflict and providing a caution for similar strategies.
format	Working Paper
author	Christian, Paul Barrett, Christopher B.
author_facet	Christian, Paul Barrett, Christopher B.
author_sort	Christian, Paul
title	Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
title_short	Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
title_full	Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
title_fullStr	Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
title_full_unstemmed	Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
title_sort	revisiting the effect of food aid on conflict : a methodological caution
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2017
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723981503518830111/Revisiting-the-effect-of-food-aid-on-conflict-a-methodological-caution http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27978
_version_	1764466280001175552

Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution

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