On the Predictability of Growth
A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complex...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 |
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okr-10986-276202021-06-08T14:42:47Z On the Predictability of Growth Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification. 2017-07-18T20:53:06Z 2017-07-18T20:53:06Z 2017-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8117 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION |
| spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS GROWTH PROJECTIONS FORECASTING PREDICTABILITY POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS DIVERSIFICATION Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano On the Predictability of Growth |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8117 |
| description |
A country's productive structure
and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a
dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to
define and measure across countries. This paper uses a
global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity
of production) as a method to explore a country's
relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are
two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and
unpredictable. This classification is used to create a
selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme),
defining future growth trajectories for similar countries,
and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with
traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund.
The analysis finds that production structure is a good
long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance
falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano |
| author_facet |
Cristelli, Matthieu Tacchella, Andrea Cader, Masud Roster, Kirstin Pietronero, Luciano |
| author_sort |
Cristelli, Matthieu |
| title |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_short |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_full |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_fullStr |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_full_unstemmed |
On the Predictability of Growth |
| title_sort |
on the predictability of growth |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/632611498503242103/On-the-predictability-of-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620 |
| _version_ |
1764465589162606592 |