South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms
After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/From-double-dip-recession-to-accelerated-reforms http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26832 |
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okr-10986-26832 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
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ACCESS TO MARKETS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ARREARS ASSET QUALITY AUCTIONS BAILIFF BANK LENDING BANK LINKAGES BANK LOAN BANKING SYSTEMS BANKRUPTCY BASIS POINTS BENEFIT ANALYSIS BIDS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND BOND SPREADS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGETING BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITALIZATION CARBON CASH FLOW CENTRAL BANK CHEMICAL INDUSTRY CLIMATE CHANGE COAL COMMERCIAL REGISTRY COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE TENDERS CONFIDENCE OF LENDERS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES COUNTRY RISKS CPI CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT LINE CREDIT MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENCY MISMATCHES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC CREDIT EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CLIMATE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMISTS EDUCATION SYSTEMS ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYER EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EQUALITY EQUITY ISSUES EQUITY MARKETS ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC MINORITIES EXPENDITURE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS FINANCIAL OPENNESS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SAFETY FINANCIAL SERVICES FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTORS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION GOVERNMENT BUDGETS GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRACE PERIOD HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME TAX INEQUALITIES INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INVENTORY INVESTMENT BANK INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS INVESTMENT RATES INVESTOR PROTECTIONS JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LABOR MOBILITY LEGAL ENVIRONMENT LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN MARKETS LOAN QUALITY LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONFIDENCE MARKET DISTORTIONS METALS MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT MINIMUM WAGE NONPAYMENT NONPERFORMING LOANS OIL OIL PRICES PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLITICAL STABILITY PRICE CHANGES PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES RECESSION REGISTRATION FEE REGULATORY BARRIERS REMITTANCES REPAYMENT RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RISK MANAGEMENT RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SAVINGS SHAREHOLDER SOCIAL SECURITY SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING STATE GUARANTEES STOCKS STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT TAX TAX COLLECTIONS TAX TREATMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADING TRANSACTION TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGES |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO MARKETS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ARREARS ASSET QUALITY AUCTIONS BAILIFF BANK LENDING BANK LINKAGES BANK LOAN BANKING SYSTEMS BANKRUPTCY BASIS POINTS BENEFIT ANALYSIS BIDS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND BOND SPREADS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGETING BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITALIZATION CARBON CASH FLOW CENTRAL BANK CHEMICAL INDUSTRY CLIMATE CHANGE COAL COMMERCIAL REGISTRY COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE TENDERS CONFIDENCE OF LENDERS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES COUNTRY RISKS CPI CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT LINE CREDIT MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENCY MISMATCHES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC CREDIT EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CLIMATE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMISTS EDUCATION SYSTEMS ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYER EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EQUALITY EQUITY ISSUES EQUITY MARKETS ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC MINORITIES EXPENDITURE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS FINANCIAL OPENNESS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SAFETY FINANCIAL SERVICES FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTORS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION GOVERNMENT BUDGETS GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRACE PERIOD HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME TAX INEQUALITIES INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INVENTORY INVESTMENT BANK INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS INVESTMENT RATES INVESTOR PROTECTIONS JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LABOR MOBILITY LEGAL ENVIRONMENT LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN MARKETS LOAN QUALITY LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONFIDENCE MARKET DISTORTIONS METALS MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT MINIMUM WAGE NONPAYMENT NONPERFORMING LOANS OIL OIL PRICES PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLITICAL STABILITY PRICE CHANGES PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES RECESSION REGISTRATION FEE REGULATORY BARRIERS REMITTANCES REPAYMENT RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RISK MANAGEMENT RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SAVINGS SHAREHOLDER SOCIAL SECURITY SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING STATE GUARANTEES STOCKS STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT TAX TAX COLLECTIONS TAX TREATMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADING TRANSACTION TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGES World Bank South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Montenegro Serbia North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) |
| description |
After two years of fragile recovery from
the global recession, as a group the six South East European
countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH),
Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are
experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating
external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on
economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment
early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments,
and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania,
and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in
reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as
they must continue to improve the investment climate and
reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6
countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to
fiscal management and the private sector, and there are
unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of
deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and
poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best
efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms,
which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries
are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of
long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt,
and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this
outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to
redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural
reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal
space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an
outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public
capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment
is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary
public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed
domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are
not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an
immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance,
and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms
materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting
the region as a whole, not just individual countries from
the European Union (EU) and global international financial
institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more
sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the
European Investment Bank, the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced
30 billion in financing for Central and South East European
countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this
timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western
Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources.
Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be
important, especially in supporting institutional reform and
rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of
regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and
on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of
investments, growth, and employment could be substantially
heightened. However, additional financing for growth and
jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by
intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the
areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| title_short |
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| title_full |
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| title_fullStr |
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| title_full_unstemmed |
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms |
| title_sort |
south east europe regular economic report, no. 3 : from double-dip recession to accelerated reforms |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/From-double-dip-recession-to-accelerated-reforms http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26832 |
| _version_ |
1764462582499901440 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-268322021-04-23T14:04:37Z South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms World Bank ACCESS TO MARKETS AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ARREARS ASSET QUALITY AUCTIONS BAILIFF BANK LENDING BANK LINKAGES BANK LOAN BANKING SYSTEMS BANKRUPTCY BASIS POINTS BENEFIT ANALYSIS BIDS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND BOND SPREADS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUDGETING BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITALIZATION CARBON CASH FLOW CENTRAL BANK CHEMICAL INDUSTRY CLIMATE CHANGE COAL COMMERCIAL REGISTRY COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE TENDERS CONFIDENCE OF LENDERS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES COUNTRY RISKS CPI CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT LINE CREDIT MARKET CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENCY MISMATCHES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC CREDIT EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CLIMATE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMISTS EDUCATION SYSTEMS ELECTRICITY GENERATION EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYER EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EQUALITY EQUITY ISSUES EQUITY MARKETS ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC MINORITIES EXPENDITURE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS FINANCIAL OPENNESS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SAFETY FINANCIAL SERVICES FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTORS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION GOVERNMENT BUDGETS GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRACE PERIOD HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME TAX INEQUALITIES INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INVENTORY INVESTMENT BANK INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS INVESTMENT RATES INVESTOR PROTECTIONS JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LABOR MOBILITY LEGAL ENVIRONMENT LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN MARKETS LOAN QUALITY LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONFIDENCE MARKET DISTORTIONS METALS MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT MINIMUM WAGE NONPAYMENT NONPERFORMING LOANS OIL OIL PRICES PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLITICAL STABILITY PRICE CHANGES PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES RECESSION REGISTRATION FEE REGULATORY BARRIERS REMITTANCES REPAYMENT RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RISK MANAGEMENT RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SAVINGS SHAREHOLDER SOCIAL SECURITY SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING STATE GUARANTEES STOCKS STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT TAX TAX COLLECTIONS TAX TREATMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADING TRANSACTION TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGES After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries from the European Union (EU) and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources. Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened. However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance. 2017-06-01T21:13:50Z 2017-06-01T21:13:50Z 2012-12 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/From-double-dip-recession-to-accelerated-reforms http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26832 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work Europe and Central Asia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Montenegro Serbia North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) |