The Road to 2020 : Scenarios for a World in Crisis

The paper is based on a scenario workshop held on January 20, 2009, where leading financial and private sector development experts from IFC, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank discussed the unfolding crisis. This paper is a product...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Djankov, Simeon, Gregory, Neil, Klein, Michael, Martin, Facundo
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURAL BANKS ARBITRATION ASSET PRICES BAILOUTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK ASSETS BANK HOLDING BANK HOLDING COMPANIES BANK LENDING BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEMS BANKRUPTCY BILATERAL TRADE BORROWING BORROWING COSTS BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET SURPLUS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ALLOCATION CAPITAL CONTROLS CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL RATIOS CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL BANK SUPPORT CENTRAL BANKS COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER SUBSIDIES CONSUMERS CONTINGENCY PLANS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CREDIT CARD CREDIT CARD DEBT CREDIT GROWTH CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEEDS DEMOCRACY DEMOGRAPHIC DEPOSITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DEVELOPMENT BANKS DIRIGISTE MEASURES DOLLAR DEBT DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC CURRENCIES DOMESTIC EQUITIES DOMESTIC MARKET DUMPING DURABLE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SYSTEM EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET EQUITY EMERGING MARKETS ENTREPRENEURS EQUITY MARKET EQUITY MARKETS EQUITY PRICES ETHNIC MINORITIES EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTERS EXPORTS FEDERAL RESERVE FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL INNOVATION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL REGULATION FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SECTOR REGULATION FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL SYSTEMS FIRM GROWTH FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICIES FORECASTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FRAUD FREE MARKET ECONOMY FREE MARKETS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL TRADE GLOBALIZATION GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUPPORT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEDGE FUND HOMEOWNERSHIP HOUSING HOUSING PRICES INCOME INCOME LEVEL INFLATION INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMATION SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS INSURANCE INSURANCE INDUSTRY INSURER INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT BANKS INVESTMENT FLOWS LABOR MARKETS LEGAL TENDER LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY RISK LONG-TERM INTEREST LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES LOW INTEREST RATES MAJORITY SHAREHOLDERS MANDATES MARKET CAPITALIZATION MARKET ECONOMIES MARKET FAILURES MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE MARXISM MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY FUNDS MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MORTGAGES MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTINATIONALS NATURAL RESOURCES NET CAPITAL NEW MARKETS NEW PRODUCTS OIL PRICES OPEN MARKET OUTPUT PATENTS PENSION PENSION FUND PENSION FUNDS PERSONAL SAVINGS PORTFOLIO POWER PARITY PRIVATE FINANCIAL MARKETS PRIVATE PENSION PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PRODUCT MARKETS PRODUCTION CAPACITY PRODUCTIVITY PROTECTIONISM PRUDENTIAL REGULATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC POLICY PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY REAL ESTATE REAL GDP RECAPITALIZATION RECESSION REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS REGIONAL TRADE REGULATORS REMITTANCES RETAINED EARNINGS RETIREMENT RETURN RETURNS RISK MANAGEMENT SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SCANDALS SELF-REGULATION SHAREHOLDERS SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SOVEREIGN BANKRUPTCIES START-UPS STOCK MARKETS SUBSIDIARIES TAX TAX CONCESSIONS TRADE BLOCS TRADE DISPUTES TRADE PROTECTION TRADING TREASURIES UNEMPLOYMENT UNION VENTURE CAPITAL VOLATILITY WEALTH WITHDRAWAL WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/754231468339564866/The-road-to-2020-scenarios-for-a-world-in-crisis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26781

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Summary:	The paper is based on a scenario workshop held on January 20, 2009, where leading financial and private sector development experts from IFC, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank discussed the unfolding crisis. This paper is a product of the staff of the Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency of the World Bank Group. The scenarios described in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The scenarios described serve as the basis of a planning exercise and are not to be interpreted as forecasts or projections on the part of the World Bank Group or the authors of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to sketch scenarios taking into account the information currently at hand. In this way, scenarios can provide decision makers with alternative views of the future. Decision makers can test their strategies against the different ways in which the future might play out. Scenarios provide a framework for debate, leading to better policy making and strategies. They are especially useful in situations where major global changes are under way but there is huge uncertainty over what may happen. Staffs of the World Bank Group are providing these scenarios to help governments and organizations prepare for an uncertain future. Being well prepared and open to thinking about different outcomes is much better than continually being behind the curve and having to chase events.

The Road to 2020 : Scenarios for a World in Crisis

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