Taking Stock, June 2012 : An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Development
The authorities' determined implementation of stabilization measures over the past year has helped to avert a macroeconomic crisis. If the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment in 2010-11 was rapid, the improvement in the situation in...
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Format: | Report |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Hanoi
2017
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/440551468318006172/Taking-stock-an-update-on-Vietnams-recent-economic-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26744 |
Summary: | The authorities' determined
implementation of stabilization measures over the past year
has helped to avert a macroeconomic crisis. If the
deterioration of the macroeconomic environment in 2010-11
was rapid, the improvement in the situation in the past
twelve months has been equally swift. Regaining
macroeconomic stability has been costly, but not stabilizing
the economy would have led to even bigger losses. Real gross
domestic product (GDP) growth has decelerated from 6.8
percent in 2010 to 5.9 percent in 2011, and further to 4
percent in the first quarter of 2012 as higher prices has
lowered domestic demand, affecting sectors such as
construction, manufacturing and utilities. Industrial
production has slowed, inventory for key industrial products
has accumulated, and a number of small and medium
enterprises have either closed, been liquidated or
temporarily suspended their operations. While the
stabilization efforts may have contributed to a cyclical
slowdown, Vietnam's trend growth rate has been on a
downward path for the last 5-6 years, largely on account of
the slow pace of structural reforms. Inefficiencies in
state-owned enterprises, banks and public investments have
been a drag on the country's long-term growth
potential. With gains from macroeconomic stabilization still
recent and fragile, especially in an external environment
that is fraught with uncertainty, the government needs to be
careful not to shift to an expansionary stance prematurely. |
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