Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries

Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries

This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecast...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:
electricity
energy consumption
econometric models
forecasting
electricity demand
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26141
id okr-10986-26141
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-261412021-06-08T14:42:47Z Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries Steinbuks, Jevgenijs electricity energy consumption econometric models forecasting electricity demand This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends. 2017-02-22T22:33:30Z 2017-02-22T22:33:30Z 2017-02 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26141 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7974 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic electricity
energy consumption
econometric models
forecasting
electricity demand
spellingShingle electricity
energy consumption
econometric models
forecasting
electricity demand
Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7974
description This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.
format Working Paper
author Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
author_facet Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
author_sort Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
title Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
title_short Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
title_full Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
title_fullStr Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
title_sort assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2017
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26141
_version_ 1764461048550653952

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